10 things going the right way for stocks as another tariff deadline looms
Conventional wisdom holds that as we get closer and closer to the coming deadline for tariff resolution, the market will become more treacherous, especially for highly valued stocks. I don’t know who writes these stories. I always check the bylines and I have never worked with them or hired them. I will tell you this: their lack of knowledge of how the market works is painful. Their shoddy knowledge of market history would never be tolerated in any classroom. They are, what we used to call at The Harvard Crimson, “filler-up stories,” meaning stories that had to be written because copy was needed. In truth, while the deadline looms, there is no relation between the highly valued stocks and the events at hand. I actually expect severe news about South Korea and Japan before Aug. 1 — the Trump administration’s “hard deadline,” in the words of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, for when new country-specific duty rates will come into effect. Korean car companies “make” vehicles here, but the White House would argue to you that all they do is assemble them here, while the more highly valued pieces of a car are made in the home country. Japan makes even less here but is defended, like Korea, by our soldiers, and I could see President Donald Trump invoking that fact to put on some capricious number — call it 35% tariffs on their imports — because that level is eye-grabbing. So, I doubt we’re even going to get to the drop dead date of Aug. 1 without more drama. Does anyone who trades or invests think that the tariffs will influence the most highly valued stocks, none other than my newly minted cohort called PARC — Palantir , Applovin , Robinhood and Coinbase ? These all have room to run because if you are willing to pay 100 times earnings it means nothing to pay 200. That’s the gospel. How can these writers not know that? Can Palantir be stopped by Canadian tariffs? Oh please, and if crypto gets knocked down, it will get up again. It’s never going to keep that down. Let’s flip this moment on its head and question what’s buoying the near-record market as second-quarter earnings season picks up steam (we have five Club names reporting this week). I have 10 things on the list, some already happening and others more forward-looking. First, and most obvious: earnings have been terrific. Yes, there is an occasional Abbott Labs , which was brutalized by China, or Netflix , which was challenged by sky-high expectations. But the banks have set the tone, and the pastiche that closed out the week all came in very strong. I expect that to continue, with the only potential weak spot being the drugmakers. Just not enough blockbusters and some very weak pipelines. It’s been a brutal year for health care overall, sitting last among all 11 sectors in the S & P 500 . Second, Trump’s “big beautiful bill” contains so many provisions that will boost the economy that I think we need to rethink the possibility of a hobbled consumer. Consider these: An extension of the 2017 tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of this year, which could’ve resulted in an effective tax increase across income cohorts. This is particularly helpful for those who make less than $100,000. A tax deduction worth up to $25,000 for employees who earn tips, a huge win for the working class. Millions of U.S. workers stand to benefit from this. Increased standard deduction to $31,500 (from $30,000) for married joint filers and $15,750 (from $15,000) for single filers. That can make taxes easier to figure out and deliver a bigger benefit. Max child tax credit of $2,200 per child, up from $2,000, which impacts around 40 million families. Expanding 529 savings plans to cover workforce credentialing programs in areas like the trades. A new deduction on car loan interest for vehicles made in the U.S., capped at $10,000 a year. For higher earners, the size of the deduction is reduced. Tax-advantaged savings accounts for newborns, the so-called “Trump accounts.” Some tax relief for seniors on Social Security benefits. These are huge benefits that will pump hundreds of billions in the U.S. economy and it’s like no one ever cares. Tariffs are important. But these put money in the hands of spenders. Third, business get more tax relief on spending, building and research-and-development costs than anyone expected. Accelerated deductions and credit for building things will set off another boom. I talked about these in a previous piece . Every time I have ever seen this kind of relief, it generates far more spending and jobs than anyone expects. Fourth, we seem to be oblivious to how countries are signaling to Washington that they are going to make their companies build here in order to get some relief from the White House. There’s also re-shoring to contend with. Sure, the White House may be circumspect about an Apple putting $500 billion into the U.S. economy in the next four years, but I’m not. Fifth, the amount of building that needs to be done for data centers and for the electric grid are so gigantic that they might be considered the equivalent of the biggest public works campaigns in history, and they include a huge labor component not often addressed. Don’t forget that nuclear power overhauls are gigantic projects. Sixth, the Federal Reserve’s new stress tests for banks will allow them to lend far more than they currently do. We forget how much heat there has been on the banks in the wake of the financial crisis to be incredibly conservative. That’s over. Seventh, the opening of all sorts of land for drilling and the approval of a huge number of new pipelines will create a second renaissance of the U.S. energy sector. Eighth, two industries have so much business and are so important to the U.S. economy that they will be colossal sources of work: aerospace, where Boeing has to expand to meet new orders, and defense, where we are depleted by Ukraine. A heavy component in this sector is new kinds of weapons including drones. Ninth, the initial public offering market is primed and ready, and I think can create new jobs and new wealth for employees and sustained profits for the investment banks, which is why they are such great buys. We own Goldman Sachs for the Club. And finally No. 10, it’s been so easy to bet against stocks for so long because the Biden administration had been so anti-business, particularly when it comes to mergers and acquisitions. That’s over. Now short-sellers will be incredibly scared to lean on stocks. Witness the rally in the railroads last week that crushed shorts banking on weaker transport earnings. Now, again, Trump seems to do whatever is necessary to derail us in astounding fashion. But we need to think more creatively. When we hear talk of him firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, what you need to think is that no matter what, lower rates lie ahead. I don’t think it will be because of a weaker economy because of what I just detailed, but because Trump wants to have a gross domestic product boom so he can say we are the fastest-growing, most-powerful country in the world. That’s what Make American Great Again stands for. Even if you think it is a gigantic fraud, remember that Trump — through a gigantic hole in the budget and pro-business agencies — has created the circumstances that could lead to the opposite of what the “filler-up stories” say will happen. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long GS and ABT. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. 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