Outlook for Sept. 15-19, 2025
What Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says about the path of monetary easing next week will be critical to a stock market that’s been insistent on interest rate cuts. The Fed meeting next week is a critical one. Investors are certain the central bank will have to cut rates for the first time since December at the conclusion of its Sept. 16-17 meeting, with some even hopeful for a jumbo half-percentage point cut. Not only that, the latest Summary of Economic Projections is also due, giving insight into how policymakers are thinking through monetary policy. Lower rates can turbocharge an already surging stock market. However, risks on the economic front — particularly in the labor market — are becoming more apparent. Those worries are starting to show up elsewhere, such as in the bond market or in the rise in gold. This week, the short end of the yield curve moved higher, while the long end moved lower, a development investors worry could start affecting equities. “The whole yield curve is shifting down, but the curve is changing shape as well,” said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert Financial. “It’s possible that people really are concerned. Starting to get worried that these employment numbers are the seeds of what could be an economic slowdown.” “We really do need to continue following that going forward,” Malek said. “There’s some message in that yield curve. I’m not sure anybody knows what it is yet.” US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, year to date Meanwhile, the stock market itself continues to climb. On Friday, the major averages were set to close in positive territory for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial average is higher by roughly 1%. The S & P 500, which remains near all-time highs above 6,500, advanced 1.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 2% this week. ‘Hallmarks of anxiety’ Many investors remain confident that artificial intelligence will continue to back the equity market’s advance, even in the face of an economic slowdown. It’s how long it can that is the question. Theoretically, there could be a “crossover” point, said Siebert Financial’s Malek, when weakness in the economy will stall enthusiasm for the AI buildout. But, few investors expect that that is anytime soon. “I don’t know that I’ve witnessed something that I perceive to be as much of a growth or expansion opportunity like [AI]. We’ve seen similar things. But this is really sustainable, … and nothing is really throwing us,” Malek said. “Even in an economic slowdown, one can still make a case for owning these stocks, certainly long term.” “I suspect that nothing lasts forever in the market. There will be a day where either they will just on their own lose that escape velocity that they need, or they’ll be overtaken by the economy,” Malek continued. “I don’t know what that point is yet. It’s not here, for sure, at this point.” Certainly, there’s cause for concern for the economic outlook. This week’s consumer price index showed an in-line reading in the year-over-year figure, which soothed investors. But, a peek under the hood showed pricing pressures have exacerbated across a number of goods. Apparel prices rose, as did motor vehicle parts. Groceries posted their biggest increase since August 2022. That hardly bodes well for the market. This week, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury dipped to 4.0% , after higher jobless claims on Thursday became the latest in a raft of recent data confirming the labor market is in a downturn. Gold prices are hovering near an all-time high , above $3,600, continuing to rally even after a three-year bull run. All of those crosscurrents are items that investors are starting to earmark. “The typical hallmarks of anxiety are all there, in the market,” Malek said. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Sept. 15 8:00 a.m. Empire State Index (September) Tuesday, Sept. 16 8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (August) 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (August) 9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (August) 9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (August) 9:15 a.m. Manufacturing Production (August) 10:00 a.m. Business Inventories (July) 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (September) Wednesday, Sept. 17 8:30 a.m. Building Permits preliminary (August) 8:30 a.m. Housing Starts (August) 2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting 2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound Earnings: General Mills Thursday, Sept. 18 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (09/06) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (09/13) 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (September) 10:00 a.m. Leading Indicators (August) Earnings: Darden Restaurants , FedEx , Lennar Friday, Sept. 19 — CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.
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