Outlook for Oct. 6-10, 2025
A relentless bull market could show some wear in the coming weeks, with investors flying blind the longer the government remains in a shutdown. Stocks are at all-time highs, with tech names in particular rallying even in the absence of any government data. On Friday, each of the major averages registered a winning week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the last five-day stretch having reached a fresh record closing high . The S & P 500 closed above 6,700 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq Composite continued to outperform, as semiconductors rallied. On Tuesday, Nvidia became the first company to hit a $4.5 trillion market value . Other assets are also on the ascent. Gold and bitcoin are enjoying huge rallies, the latest trade favored by retail traders . Emerging market stocks are outperforming U.S. equities this year. China large cap stocks are now up 36% in 2025. For the moment, the conventional wisdom goes like this: Stocks, which have historically disregarded shutdowns, can continue their bull rally so long as the suspension of federal operations doesn’t continue for longer than usual. Yet, there are concerns that this time could be different. The blackout in government data could mean the Federal Reserve won’t have crucial data ahead of its Oct. 28-29 meeting, just as risks to both the labor market and inflation are rising. “This time, a shutdown is going to matter,” said Hardika Singh, economic strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors. “When the Fed meets at the end of October, without this data from the nonfarm payrolls report, it’s going to be very, very difficult for them to make a decision,” Singh continued. “The president is giving them so much flack for being slow with cutting interest rates. And I think that with the Fed independence already under fire, it makes it all the more important for us to see rate cuts come at the right time for the right reasons.” Singh, who is nonetheless bullish on the market despite any reservations, said any lack of clarity around economic conditions heading into the decision could dent a rally that’s hated by many. “The market is in mostly a really good spot, but people are looking for reasons to not believe this rally,” Singh said. “I think the shutdown here just gives them all the more ammunition to not buy the argument that we’re in a bull market.” Hard to fight the rally Nervousness is evident in various corners on Wall Street. Noted billionaire investor Leon Cooperman said this week he expects that the market is in the late innings of a bull market that suggests it’s vulnerable to losses, though he added that it’s less risky than bonds, given higher inflation. What’s more, some investors increasingly claim the Fed doesn’t have to cut rates right away, given elevated inflation, record high stocks and a still-growing economy. Markets are still pricing in two quarter-point cuts by the end of the year, with the next coming later this month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Just this week, Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok said the Fed need not cut given that the outlook for stronger inflation. On Friday, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said he’s leery of cutting interest rates too quickly. Still, for the time being, many investors find it’s hard to fight bullish momentum in the market. High valuations remain a concern, but David Miller, investment chief at Catalyst Funds, said that the makeup of the current market — skewed as it is toward tech companies — can handle premium valuations more than in the past. This week, Fundstrat’s Lee told clients said he expects the S & P 500 could get to 7,000, at least, by December . “We would not lean bearish because of shutdowns,” he said. “If stocks are down, we would be dip buyers.” Looking ahead, with government data falling by the wayside, other events could grow in importance. Third-quarter earnings, which start up the week after next with the country’s largest banks, could decide whether stocks will move another leg higher or give up some of their recent gains. Next week, the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the September 16-17 meeting may enlighten investors searching for insight into the makeup of the Fed, following the divisions in the last two meetings. And a parade of Fed speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, are set to speak at various conferences. Here is the calendar for the week ahead with U.S. economic data included as scheduled. Some reports could be delayed because of the government shutdown. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Oct. 6 Earnings: Constellation Brands Tuesday, Oct. 7 8:30 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Director of Research Kartik Athreya speaks at the Orange County Partnership Investor Breakfast 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (August) 10:05 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis 10:30 a.m. Fed Governor Miran discusses at the Managed Funds Association Policy Outlook 2025, New York 11:30 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Director of Research Kartik Athreya speaks at the West Point Finance Club Speaker ‘Regional and National Economic Outlook’ 3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (August) 4:05 p.m. Fed Governor Miran discusses at the Deutsche Bank 2025 Fall Macro Conference, New York Earnings: McCormick & Co. Wednesday, Oct. 8 9:30 a.m. Fed Governor Barr speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research, St. Louis 2:00 p.m. FOMC Minutes 5:45 p.m. Fed Governor Barr speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Center for Indian Country Development 10th Anniversary and Data Summit Thursday, Oct. 9 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (09/27) 8:30 a.m. Fed Chair Powell sepaks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (10/04) 8:35 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (August) 11:45 a.m. New York Federal Reserve Bank Director of the NY Innovation Center Per von Zelowitz panels at the Chicago Payments Symposium 12:45 a.m. Fed Governor Barr speaks at the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis 3:45 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. Earnings: Delta Air Lines , PepsiCo Friday, Oct. 10 10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (October) 2:00 p.m. Treasury Budget (September)
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