May be time to take profits in a time of greed, BofA’s Hartnett says
Overflowing investor enthusiasm is close to triggering some reliable sell signals in the stock market, according to Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett. Money is pouring into equities as well as their fixed income counterpart, high-yield bonds, indicating that investor willingness to shrug off geopolitical headwinds is approaching danger levels, Hartnett said in his weekly note that examines where investors are putting their cash. “Greedy inflows saying take some profits off the table,” the strategist wrote. One specific area where he pointed was the flows to global equity and high-yield fixed income. Over the past four weeks, the two categories have taken in 0.99% of cash relative to assets under management — just one one-hundredth of a percentage point from a tactical sell signal. Conversely, outflows exceeding 1% have been a reliable contrarian buy sign of excessive pessimism. The observations come with the S & P 500 punching through to a new record Friday as investors show a strong willingness to overlook a multitude of headwinds , from geopolitical tensions to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. .SPX YTD line S & P 500 performance in 2025. There are other potential danger signs amid all the bullishness: BofA’s Bull & Bear indicator of sentiment is at 5.8, the highest since November 2024. Also, nearly three-quarters of global stock indexes are trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages. When that number, currently at 73%, hits 88%, that’s been a good time to sell, Hartnett said. Hartnett said the S & P 500 above 6,300 would trigger a sell — still nearly 2% away, but a number to watch. U.S. stocks this year are on pace for their third-largest inflow of new cash ever, with $164 billion rolling in so far, according to BofA data. Large caps are on pace for record inflows, while small caps are on track for record outflows.
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