Buyers pull the S&P 500 out of the hole
(These are the market notes on today’s action by Mike Santoli, CNBC’s Senior Markets Commentator. See today’s video update from Mike above.) The market is trying to make last week’s low look consequential, with buyers seizing on stability in bitcoin , some oversold conditions in the indexes and widespread “de-risking” within the AI trade to pull the S & P 500 out of the hole. The index was carried higher by more than 1.5% with the ascendant “non-OpenAI AI” complex led by Broadcom and Alphabet , as well as sharp bounces in the likes of Meta Platforms and Palantir . The rebound is taking the S & P back to within 3% of its late-October record high, though the conventional playbook would say the recovery attempt should grow a bit tougher from here. Last Thursday’s high — after Nvidia ‘s solid results but before the thumping downside reversal — sits at 6770 on the S & P. That happens also to be the index’s peak right before the Oct. 10 air pocket that broke the unusually calm six-month advance, and the same level is around the current 20-day average — often a noteworthy hurdle separating a reflex bounce in a downtrend from a more substantive recovery. This is about 1% above where we sit currently. Away from the headline indexes (such as the Nasdaq-100 ‘s 2.6% jump), the action is somewhat less exuberant. About 65% of NYSE volume is in advancing stocks, fine but not a feeding frenzy, though the Nasdaq is at 80% upside volume. The equal-weighted S & P 500 rose by a more modest 0.7%, even as it has climbed back above its own high from last week. The mess in recent weeks has plenty of tech stocks reeling, and there were slightly more new 52-week lows than highs on the Nasdaq for the day. It’s typical to speak of markets having to rebuild a base and prove themselves again after a sharp setback like the latest 5% drop, and it makes sense to assume such principles apply. But I should note that V-shaped trading bottoms have occurred in recent years far more often than I or many others would have expected. If crypto asset prices are no longer showing signs of urgent, self-reinforcing liquidation, it reduces the concern over selling in adjacent high-beta stocks and the like, which are bouncing the hardest after having suffered the worst in the pullback. Alphabet is now being crowned the reigning AI-monetization winner by the market, with some reason. As described in my column from this morning , a world in which this incumbent Internet player leads in AI is one that makes such services seem more incremental. It also means Nvidia’s chips are less at the very center of it all and raises the stakes for the OpenAI web of partners. The proxies for those infrastructure plans bounced today, but it seems unlikely the market will get back to the “everybody wins” mode of several months ago. The market’s conclusions on how this AI rush plays out are highly subject to change, of course. And whatever the case, Alphabet shares are starting to run quite hot on a technical basis. Perhaps the market is simply making the case that it’s a more balanced competitive field, with Alphabet’s forward P/E having quickly rushed higher to meet that of Microsoft almost precisely. Question now: Whether a quick 5% pullback in the S & P 500 was enough to shake out the skittish and place the market in firmer hands, with room to chase the tape if a year-end ramp develops. Earnings have come in healthy and profit forecasts are making new highs. Credit markets have been a bit unsettled but not crossing any financial-condition tripwires. One hazard I’d been mindful of when it seemed most expected — the market to melt up through November and December — is that it would carry investor optimism toward treacherous heights entering a new year, when often that can lead to a first-quarter hangover. Perhaps the recent wobble has forestalled such a scenario. But at least from the Wall Street strategist year-end 2026 forecasts we’re getting so far, it seems there’s a chance the sell side enters the year with pretty aggressive expectations. Of seven firms that have published year-ahead 2026 targets, the average is 7628, up 14% from here, and the lowest so far calls for a 10% gain. Something to watch as the holidays encroach and everyone focuses on setting expectations for the calendar flip.
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