SpaceX may be the biggest IPO ever next year. How to play it right now
When SpaceX eventually goes public, the long-anticipated offering is expected to be the largest IPO ever, reshaping valuations across the aerospace industry and delivering a rare blockbuster deal for Wall Street. The Elon Musk -led space launch company is preparing to go public next year, reportedly targeting a valuation of about $1.5 trillion , potentially eclipsing the Saudi Aramco IPO record set in 2019. The immediate winners are already clear: a tight circle of private investors, publicly traded space sector peers and the investment banks jockeying to take SpaceX public. Here’s who stands to gain the most. Private shareholders A SpaceX IPO would unlock liquidity for some of the most outspoken — and concentrated — backers in private markets. Ron Baron, founder of Baron Capital, has said roughly 25% of his personal investments are tied to SpaceX. The company also represents about 18% of the Baron Partners Fund , making it one of the fund’s largest holdings. Baron has repeatedly argued that SpaceX remains in the early stages of value creation, saying he expects the investment to be worth 10 times its current value over the next decade. He has also vowed that he will not sell a single share in SpaceX in his lifetime. Cathie Wood has also made SpaceX a cornerstone bet. The company is the largest holding in ARK’s Venture Fund with $384 million in assets under management, accounting for 7.4% of fund. Wood has said ARK’s expected value for SpaceX in 2030 is about a $2.5 trillion enterprise value , driven by launch services and the global expansion of Starlink. Public investors have increasingly looked for indirect exposure as well. EchoStar has benefited from renewed focus on its large equity stake in SpaceX, which it acquired through earlier spectrum license sales tied to satellite and wireless assets. Rival rocket companies A SpaceX IPO would likely serve as a valuation anchor for the entire space- and aerospace industry, drawing fresh capital to listed peers. “Overall, a potential SpaceX IPO would be the largest IPO in history, and in our view, would also likely draw more attention to valuations in the aerospace sector, some of which we see as undervalued,” said Andres Sheppard, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald. That dynamic could especially benefit Rocket Lab , which Sheppard sees as the closest public-market peer to SpaceX’s launch business. Rocket Lab targeted more than 20 launches in 2025 and has already completed 77 total successful launches to date, making it the second-most active launch provider in the U.S. and the most active publicly listed company in the sector, Sheppard said. As space-based data centers gain traction, highlighted by SpaceX, other companies like Planet Labs and Intuitive Machines , stand to benefit, according to Deutsche Bank. Planet Labs is already working with Google to develop prototype satellites, targeting a 2027 launch, aimed at testing capabilities such as thermal management, formation flying and edge computing in orbit, Deutsche Bank said. Intuitive Machines may benefit through its proposed acquisition of Lanteris, which Deutsche Bank said will give the new company access to satellite platforms capable of supporting high-power, graphics processing unit and tensor processing unit payloads. The banks Finally, there’s Wall Street. The transaction could generate hundreds of millions of dollars in underwriting fees , making it one of the most sought after deals in years.
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