AI adoption will play a greater role deciding next year’s winners and losers. Here’s why
One thing is clear in 2026: AI adoption will play a greater role in deciding which stocks wind up next year’s winners. Wall Street expects AI enablers — the chipmakers, cloud providers, and datacenter companies that are the “picks and shovels” for the AI revolution — will remain a driving force for the stock market next year, according to CNBC’s Market Strategist Survey . (The survey shows that AI will remain a defining theme that helps the S & P 500 post yet another double-digit advance ). But more investors are casting an eye toward non-tech companies. Not only are they sitting out the spending race for the holy grail of artificial general intelligence (AGI) — which has the hyperscalers swept up in fears of an AI bubble — they could also be set up for big gains as they integrate the technology more into their businesses. “We anticipate an incremental shift from AI enablers to adopters/users in 2026, setting the stage for increased productivity improvement commentary across corporates,” Citi’s Scott Chronert wrote in his 2026 outlook titled “A Persistent But Volatile Bull.” “The evolution will likely follow a perceived winner versus loser dynamic,” Chronert added. Wall Street firms are already drawing up estimates on AI’s impact on productivity. Goldman Sachs forecasts AI-driven productivity benefits will boost S & P 500 earnings growth by 0.4% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027. While estimates vary, the firm expects just 30% to 40% of large firms already utilize AI to some extent in their firms. The biggest benefits are likely to accrue to cyclical sectors, such as industrials, materials and consumer discretionary. Justin Bergner, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, said he’s looking for companies where AI could replace a large number of employees, which would support productivity gains and margin expansion. One area he’s looking at are industrial distributors, as opposed to industrial manufacturers, that rely heavily on workers for sales, marketing and other business overhead operations. “That’s something I’m thinking a lot about,” Bergner said. To be sure, that’s a key concern for investors heading into 2026. While the stock market is expected to expand from greater AI adoption, it could suffer if the jobs market weakens too much as a result. “Where we are now is a point where you really have to pick a side ,” BofA’s Savita Subramanian said on CNBC earlier this month. “So, either AI stocks are all that, but if that’s the case, they’re going to take a bunch of jobs away, which means the consumption could alter next year.” “I worry about the idea that we’re just pricing in the best of everything right now,” she added. Other companies set to benefit are big banks. JPMorgan, which has an overweight rating on banks and a neutral rating on financials, said AI offers “significant indirect benefits” to the sector, given their tech-driven, people-heavy operations. Pharmaceuticals, which could benefit from AI’s role in drug discovery, is another sector that can benefit, the firm said in its outlook.
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