Some traders say the market is too calm. How to hedge just in case
The market has not seen much volatility from President Donald Trump’s latest policy demands. If anything, traders have reacted with a strange calm. But now Bank of America thinks investors should position for tumultuous times. In recent days, Trump has made numerous calls related to easing costs on Americans, proposing a 10% interest rate cap on credit card companies and declaring that large institutional investors be barred from buying more single-family homes . The president has also said that he’s ” instructing my Representatives ” to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds with the goal of reducing rates and monthly payments. All of the moves come just months ahead of the midterm elections in November — an event that has historically brought both turbulence and underperformance for stocks in a four-year presidential cycle. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 in the past 12 months “As the U.S. administration’s focus shifts to affordability ahead of midterms, policy volatility remains a feature, not a bug,” Bank of America analyst Arjun Goyal wrote in a Tuesday note. Goyal said that a typical consequence of unpredictable policy has been suppressed U.S. equity correlation, meaning that stocks in the broader market don’t move as much in the same direction. However, according to historical trends, current single-digit S & P 500 correlation levels are “unsustainable,” the analyst said, signaling that U.S. equity correlation should increase. As a result, Goyal recommends that investors consider gaining protection through CBOE Volatility Index call options, specifically the February call spread collars that “underwrite a VIX floor near 15-16.” The so-called VIX index is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge. Goyal also recommended that investors move into gold and silver call options, as policy unpredictability usually leads to a “sharp” rally in gold and silver prices as well. “While optionality is tactically valuable in this environment, the historic asymmetry lies in funding GLD [3-month] calls with further [out-of-the-money] SLV [3-month] calls, given silver vol remains dislocated higher relative to gold vol,” he wrote.
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