This financial stock has been a winning trade for 13-straight earnings reports
Capital One Financial investors have found a rare source of consistency in an otherwise volatile market: buying the stock into earnings, according to Bespoke Investment Group. When the credit card lender reports results Thursday after the close, traders will be watching not just the numbers, but whether the company can extend an unusual streak. Since late 2022, Capital One shares have risen on the day after earnings every single time — 13 straight reports — delivering an average one-day gain of about 3.5%, according to data from Bespoke. “Shares have seen one-day gains in response to earnings on each of its last 13 reports,” Bespoke said in a note, calling the run “exceptionally rare” for a large-cap financial stock. The consistency has come despite uneven fundamentals. Since the bull market began in October 2022, Capital One has exceeded earnings-per-share forecasts just seven out of 13 times and topped revenue expectations only six times, Bespoke data show. The company has beaten both earnings and sales estimates in the same quarter just three times over that span. “Based on its results relative to expectations, it doesn’t appear as though Capital One has been minting money,” Bespoke wrote. Yet the stock’s reaction to earnings has remained uniformly positive, suggesting investors have been more focused on forward commentary and positioning than backward-looking results, the Wall Street research firm said. That pattern is now colliding with a growing political overhang. Capital One and other credit-card issuers have come under renewed pressure after President Donald Trump escalated criticism of the industry , reviving concerns about a potential 10% cap on interest rates and fees. The rhetoric has weighed on the stock in recent weeks with shares down more than 3% this month, adding to uncertainty heading into the report. COF 3M mountain Capital One shares over the past three months
<
