Outlook for Feb. 23-27, 2026
Wall Street next week is bracing for President Donald Trump’s new tariff plan following Friday’s Supreme Court ruling, at the same time as traders scan for escalating tensions with Iran and look ahead to Nvidia ‘s latest financial results. Stocks swung between gains and losses on Friday after the high court ruled that Trump wrongfully invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement his reciprocal tariffs. In response, Trump said he will impose a new 10% “global tariff,” using powers contained in other trade acts. The major market averages initially rallied on the Supreme Court decision, sold off and then recovered again as investors expected it would soothe tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners, result in refunds to affected companies and possibly reduce inflation. “It would seem that Wall Street — and Main Street — are going to be dealing with the issue of trade and tariffs for some time to come,” Tim Holland, chief investment officer of Orion Wealth Management, wrote on Friday. Other details still concern the market. For one, the issue of refunds — forcing the U.S. to return billions of dollars to importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs — was kicked back down to the lower courts, laying the groundwork for prolonged legal fights. “We expect that the process for firms to receive tariff refunds will be lengthy and challenging, with litigants needing to bring individual cases or participate in class action (vs. automatic refunds),” Ed Mills, managing director and Washington policy analyst at Raymond James, wrote on Friday. But unless Trump gets congressional backing, future tariffs may not be as comprehensive. If the result is easier inflation, the Federal Reserve may have more room to lower interest rates. Wall Street will closely listen for other policy signals from the White House. Trump on Tuesday night is set to deliver his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress, which Barclays’ trading desk said may include an ultimatum to Iran. This past week, Trump encouraged Iran to reach a deal over its nuclear program, warning that otherwise “bad things” might happen. The president seemed to set an unclear 10- to 15-day deadline before the U.S. takes military action. And, Nvidia’s earnings results are due out Wednesday. The Jensen Huang-helmed chipmaker is one of only two Magnificent Seven stocks to have eked out a stock market gain this year, but Nvidia faces high expectations to beat analyst estimates and raise forecasts in its latest report, reassuring investors that investment in artificial intelligence remains intact. Markets on edge The result is a stock market on tenterhooks heading into the weekend. While geopolitical risks in the past haven’t had any meaningful impact on the stock market, investors today may be encouraged to reduce exposure, what with stocks only a couple of percent below all-time highs. Plus, the chance of any disappointment out of Nvidia, by far the largest stock in the S & P 500, could further hurt sentiment. Justin Bergner, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, said the current backdrop has him defensively positioned — with a modest overweight in consumer staples, health care and utility stocks — given the possibility of a 10% to 15% pullback, as typically occurs in a midterm election year. “It feels like, at some point, something could give,” Bergner said. Yet the money manager remains hopeful that fiscal stimulus — more government spending coupled with consumer and business tax breaks — from last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill will start to take effect in a few months, papering over any nascent economic weakness. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Feb. 23 10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (December) 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (December) Earnings: Keysight Technologies, Diamondback Energy, Domino’s Pizza, Dominion Energy Tuesday, Feb. 24 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (December) 10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (February) 10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories (December) 9:00 p.m. 2026 State of the Union (SOTU) Earnings: First Solar , Axon Enterprise , Workday , The Mosaic Co. , HP , GoDaddy , CoStar Group , Fidelity National Information Services , American Tower , Home Depot , NRG Energy , Keurig Dr Pepper , EOG Resources Wednesday, Feb. 25 Earnings: Salesforce , Nvidia , TKO Group Holdings , Synopsys , VICI Properties , Universal Health Services , Paramount Skydance , Agilent Technologies , The Trade Desk , Lowe’s Companies , The TJX Cos. , Pinnacle West Capital , Raymond James Financial , APA Corp. Thursday, Feb. 26 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (2/21) Earnings: Block , Solventum , Dell Technologies , SBA Communications , NetApp , Autodesk , Intuit , Coterra Energy , Sempra , Public Service Enterprise Group , Vistra , The J. M. Smucker Co. , Viatris , Hormel Foods , Qnity Electronics , The AES Corp. Friday, Feb. 27 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (January) 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (January) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (February) 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (December)
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