Ticketmaster antitrust risks are easing, making its parent company’s stock a buy, says Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo is bullish on Live Nation Entertainment as antitrust break-up risks tied to Ticketmaster begin to wind down. The bank initiated the live events and entertainment company with an overweight rating and $204 price target, implying upside of 29%. Analyst Steven Cahall applauded Live Nation’s strategy to deploy capital to become a concert owner and operator. “We’ve positioned our initiation as a deep dive into Venue Nation as LYV transitions from concert promoter to venue owner & operator (O & O) — i.e. from asset-light to capital-intensive. This increases the risk & opportunity,” he wrote. “Venue Nation is > 50% of LYV [adjusted operating income] + the most important [adjusted operating income] growth driver in our view.” LYV 1Y mountain LYV 1Y chart Cahall noted that, while Ticketmaster is facing change, the outcomes are manageable. He wrote that the biggest debate currently at Ticketmaster is the pace of industry change, some stemming from more regulations, that reduce secondary fees. “We est. LYV derives ~$150-$200mm in [adjusted operating income] from secondary. But, there’s likely upside headroom on primary concert [gross transaction value] as secondary phases w/ artists capturing more demand value,” he added. We think investors have already moderated expectations for Ticketmaster’s [adjusted operating income] contribution (also reflected in ’26 guidance). The analyst also pointed to a recent ruling that appears to reduce the risk of an antitrust break-up between Live Nation and Ticketmaster. He believes that a settlement, with manageable financial and behavioral remedies, is the most likely outcome. “We expect limited impact from the FTC case. Resolutions could occur in 1H’26,” he added. “So as not to be pollyannaish, we sensitized a more extreme downside remedy scenario implying $144/sh (-9% downside).” Shares of Live Nation have popped 9% over the past 12 months and 11% this year.
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