Swiss sneaker maker’s guidance disappoints
The Roger models, named after former tennis player and company investor Roger Federer, are displayed in a shop of Swiss shoemaker On in Zurich, Switzerland, Aug. 28, 2025.
Denis Balibouse | Reuters
Swiss sneaker maker On Holding is down 11% in premarket trading, despite issuing guidance for another year of strong growth and reporting record sales and improved profitability in 2025.
The brand, which sells premium-priced athletic shoes and apparel, posted fourth-quarter net sales of 743.8 million Swiss francs ($946 million), up 30.6% in constant currencies, and above LSEG estimates of 723.5 million francs.
Over the full year, sales surpassed 3 billion francs for the first time, slightly ahead of estimates of 2.99 billion francs.
The fast-growing brand said it sees 2026 net sales growing by at least 23% in constant currencies. At current spot rates, it said, this implies sales of at least 3.44 billion francs, however, sell-side analyst consensus had expected this year’s sales closer to 3.7 billion francs. The company sees an adjusted EBITDA margin of between 18.5% and 19%.
On shares were flat year-to-date coming into Tuesday trading.
On is now in the third and final year of its strategy to double sales to 3.55 billion francs and increase EBITDA margin to at least 18% by 2026 in a quest to be “the most premium global sportswear brand.”
The company, which went public in 2021 on the New York Stock Exchange, has been able to grab market share from legacy competitors such as Nike and Adidas through innovative products and a focus on performance footwear and apparel.
“We are witnessing a fundamental societal shift, as people globally replace traditional markers of status with a commitment to health, longevity, and performance,” said the company’s co-founder and executive chair, David Allemann. “On is uniquely positioned to deliver what this discerning consumer demands.”
Profitability also reached new highs over the full year, the company said.
In the quarter, adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) increased by 31.8% to 131 million francs from, reflecting a margin of 18.8% and beating LSEG estimates of 112.4 million francs. The beat reflected operational efficiencies and the strength of the brands’ positioning, the company said.
Asia-Pacific was the clear standout, with sales in the region growing 85.1% at constant currencies. The Americas and EMEA grew at 21.3% and 27.5%, respectively, in the three months ended December.
“The strength of our premium strategy allows us to exceed our high aspirations while providing the flexibility to reinvest in the high-return areas that we expect will fuel our growth for years to come,” said CEO Martin Hoffmann in a statement.
In the previously reported quarter, On surprised investors on the upside as it raised guidance for the third time in a row while beating expectations on both the top and bottom line, sending the stock up 18%. It also said it wouldn’t offer any deals during the shopping season because it aims to be a premium brand.
Shares are largely flat year-to-date, with some analysts suggesting that challenges will mount in 2026, and the stock’s valuation doesn’t fully reflect these risks.
“In a tougher pricing environment, and with competitive intensity rising, premium positioning alone may not be enough to sustain price-led growth without risking demand and/or higher promotional activity,” said Jefferies analyst Randal Konik, who rates shares Underperform, in late February.
– CNBC’s Gabrielle Fonrouge contributed to this report
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