Why they may be an unexpected winner of the AI boom, Iran war
The Peruvian stock market has emerged as an unlikely winner as global markets become engulfed by uncertainty. The S & P Peru Total Index has soared 23% in 2026 and is up more than 75% over the past 12 months. It’s outperforming not only the S & P 500 — down 2% year to date and up 19% in the past year — it is also outpacing the MSCI Emerging Markets index , which has gained 30% in a 12-month span and 4% for the year. The iShares MSCI Peru and Global Exposure ETF (EPU) is also up more than 13% this year. The key to Peru’s success comes from the commodities space, namely gold and copper, as investors aim to capitalize on the ongoing artificial intelligence boom and hedge against rising geopolitical risks. And with Peru expected to welcome a more pro-markets government this April, Peru seems poised for even greater gains in the near future. EPU YTD mountain EPU in 2026 “If you do get an outcome where political stability improves, that is … grounds for upward revision of GDP [and] an increase in business confidence,” Ola El-Shawarby, portfolio manager for VanEck’s Emerging Markets Fund, told CNBC. “Coupled with commodity driven tailwinds, that puts Peru in a pretty interesting spot.” Demand for copper is rising amid a boom in AI data centers, which rely on the industrial metal for speedy, high-efficiency power distribution, El-Shawarby said. Over the next decade, 3,226 data centers are expected to be constructed worldwide, according to global technology intelligence firm ABI Research. The material is also a critical component of the electrical grids that supply power to data facilities, El-Shawarby noted. “AI is a big driver structurally going forward, and you need for that an investment in the power grid,” El-Shawarby said. “So, between the electrification trade more broadly, and then specifically, investments into data centers, copper is a key component for those buildouts.” Demand for copper also exceeds reserves, making Peruvian stocks the beneficiaries of existing structural and supply constraints. “The supply of copper is quite constrained, and the ability to bring on new supply is more difficult than previous cycles and also takes much longer, so countries like Peru and Chile with their good reserves and exports of copper, are definitely at the forefront of benefiting from that,” El-Shawarby told CNBC. The price of copper has risen 20% over the past year. It’s also up more than 2% in 2026. @HG.1 1Y mountain Copper 1-yr chart Safe-haven trade also a boost Surges in gold and silver— traditional safe-haven assets — also stand to power Peruvian markets, the analyst noted. Peru boasts 3.9% of the world’s gold reserves and 21.8% of its silver , according to an EY report published last year, which cites data from the U.S. Geological Survey . Gold is up roughly 81% over the past year, while silver has risen 176% within the same period. “Gold is no longer being positioned just as an uncertainty hedge or inflation hedge, but also there is an increasing component of gold demand being structural, especially by the likes of central banks globally, driven by a diversification away from the dollar,” El-Shawarby said. As global demand for precious metals grows, Bank of America sees a 29.4% increase in Peruvian trade for 2026, according to its recent note to clients. “We foresee a sustained export boom boosted by the terms of trade (mainly metal export prices) [and] an improvement in business confidence reinforcing a virtuous cycle between investment, labor, and consumption,” BofA wrote in the note dated March 5. Trade tailwinds have already been a big boon for Peru. From January to October 2025, the country’s exports hit $49.63 billion, up 24.6% from the same period a year earlier, according to Peru’s Ministry of Energy and Mines . To be sure, Peru’s economy and markets could still face a significant shock as global oil prices rise due to the Iran War. Oil prices surged to more than $110 for the first time in four years on Monday, just 9 days after the U.S. and Israel began to wage war against Iran. However, higher copper and gold export prices may “more than offset” the impact of higher oil import prices linked to a rising conflict in the Middle East, according to Bank of America analysts. In addition, the Iran war may drive investments into foreign markets as a means of portfolio derisking and diversification, Change Global Investment founder Thea Jamison told CNBC. That could drive fresh flows to Peru, and even other Latin American markets. “This flare up is only going to amplify the need, the desire, the direction towards global diversification, which ultimately will benefit emerging markets,” Jamison said. Ways to trade Investors looking for exposure to the Peruvian stock market can do so through the EPU ETF. It charges 0.59% in fees. The fund also posted gains in the last three years and has outperformed the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) in four of the last five years. There are also some U.S.-listed companies in the fund, including Credicorp , a bank, and miner Compania de Minas Buenaventura . Credicorp has popped nearly 15% in 2026, while Buenaventura — which mines gold, silver and other metals — has soared 28%.
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