Outlook for March 30-April 3, 2026
The S & P 500 could soon join the other U.S. benchmarks in a correction as the Iran war stretches into a fifth week. Stocks are quickly deteriorating, with each of the major averages on pace to post an ugly month of losses as hopes for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict gives way to fear. This week, the Nasdaq Composite fell into correction territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average quickly joining the tech-heavy benchmark. The S & P 500 doesn’t look too far behind, just 9% off its own all-time high. A correction is defined as a slide of more than 10% and less than 20% from a recent peak. The technical setup is worrisome as well, given that the S & P 500’s recent breakdown below its 200-day moving average suggests there’s further downside ahead. At the very least, it will mean more volatility. An analysis from Cormark Capital Markets showed that the Vix averages 17 when it’s above its 200-day, versus 26 when it’s below that support. All month, investors have been hopeful that a quick resolution to the Iran war will mean the bull case for equities remains intact, given that strong earnings growth and easier fiscal policy is supportive — even now — of a big recovery later this year. But they are also growing more uneasy the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed as the conflict starts to have real-world ramifications. “I think if you tell me what’s going to happen in the Middle East, I can tell you what’s going to happen in the market,” said Thomas Browne, portfolio manager at Keeley Gabelli Funds. The investment landscape is starting to reflect those changes in expectations. Treasury yields are rallying, with the 10-year above 4.4% as inflation expectations rise. Fed funds futures pricing is starting to show an interest rate hike expected later this year, instead of a cut. Oil remains above $100 a barrel , with many prognosticators dubious it will come down anytime soon. For a time, it appeared as though investors could count on the so-called “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO) trade in which equities stage a massive comeback after President Donald Trump backs off from an initial threat. The acronym was popularized last year after Trump pared back the severity of his original tariff announcement. Now, it appears that investors are bracing for a longer conflict given that Iran’s government officials have showed no intention to hold talks with the U.S., even after Trump signaled a willingness to negotiate and end the war. Besides, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar, the U.S. appears to be ramping up its forces in the Middle East, with the Pentagon sending another 10,000 troops. Investors’ complacency in the face of steep downside risks has more strategists turning bearish on the stock market. This week, Citigroup strategists said they’re dialing back their exposure to U.S. equities, warning that the “incentives for both Iran and Israel do not necessarily align with a quick end.” Next week, the nonfarm payrolls report for March will show whether the U.S. labor market remains resilient or is starting to rapidly deteriorate. Any strength could relieve investors who worry about a weakening growth outlook. The jobs report will come out on Good Friday, though the stock market won’t be able to respond until the following Monday due to its closure for the holiday. Economists polled by FactSet expect the economy will have grown by 57,000 in March, far exceeding the loss of 92,000 jobs in the prior month. The unemployment rate is expected to have held at 4.4%. Seasonally, at least, there is some good news. April will mark the end of the best six months for the stock market, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. It’s usually the No. 2 best month of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has averaged a 1.8% yearly gain going back to 1950. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, March 30 Tuesday, March 31 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (January) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (March) 10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (March) 10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (February) Earnings: Nike , McCormick & Co. Wednesday, April 1 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (March) 8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (February) 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Manufacturing final (March) 10:00 a.m. Business Inventories (January) 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (March) Earnings: Conagra Brands Thursday, April 2 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (03/28) Friday, April 3 Markets are closed for Good Friday 8:30 a.m. March Jobs Report 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Services final (March) 10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (March)
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