The S&P 500 is wrapping up a tough month. Why April could be better
A fresh start could be just what the stock market needs, if history is any indication. The S & P 500 is down more than 5% in March, putting it on track for its worst monthly slide since March 2025. April, however, has been a strong month in the past. April is historically the second best performing month for the S & P 500 and only trails behind November, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The index sees average gains of 1.4% in April and outperforms the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 . It’s “rarely a dangerous month” for index performance, with 2002, 2004, 2005, 2024 and 2025 as “recent exceptions,” Almanac editor-in-chief Jeffrey Hirsch noted. “The opening month of the first three quarters produces the greatest gains in the Dow Jones Industrials, S & P 500, and NASDAQ,” Hirsh wrote. A strong April could provide relief after investors took a beating in the final month of Q1. The start of the U.S.-Iran war, rising oil prices and lingering inflation fears put pressure on equities. .SPX YTD mountain SPX YTD “I think the market’s going to [take] some time over the next several months as we figure out what Iran and U.S. and Israel are going to do, and what the rest of the world is going to do about the Strait of Hormuz,” Hirsch told CNBC. Stocks could also face pressure in the runup to midterm elections. The S & P 500 sheds 0.3% on average in April during midterm election years since 1950. Midterm elections usually introduce volatility in the stock market driven by potential economic policy changes. “The second and third quarters of the midterm year have been the weakest period of the entire 4-year pattern” of the election cycle, Hirsch wrote. Comparatively, the S & P 500 still outperforms the Nasdaq and Russell 1000 in April during midterm election years. The latter two benchmarks average declines of 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively. The S & P 500 slips 0.3% on average in April in midterm election years. “While I expect higher highs towards the end of the year in line with my annual forecast, I think we could be marking some time and chopping along for a little while as some of these macro events and economic issues get ironed out,” Hirsch said.
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