Business sentiment improves in Tankan survey

Large Japanese manufacturers indicated their highest level of business optimism in over four years, despite uncertainties brought about from the Iran war.

That’s according to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey, a closely-watched poll that measures business sentiment among domestic companies.

The index for business optimism among large Japanese manufacturers increased to 17 for the first quarter of 2026, up from 15 in the previous quarter — per the survey results published April 1 — and against the 16 expected by economists polled by Reuters.

A positive figure on the Tankan indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists, and vice versa.

The figure was at its highest since the fourth quarter of 2021, according to LSEG data.

This was helped by “solid profits” offsetting pressures from higher energy costs, according to Carlos Casanova, senior economist for Asia at Swiss private bank UBP in an email to CNBC.

Large non-manufacturers’ business sentiment stood at 36, holding at a multi-decade high as per LSEG data, and same as last quarter’s revised 36. That also defied Reuters poll expectations of 33.

The Nikkei 225 gained 4.48% on Wednesday after the data release, fuelled by hopes that the Iran war could end soon.

In comments to CNBC, Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, said that the uptick in business sentiment was also due to Japan’s economy seeing accelerating momentum at the start of the year, supported by strong exports in January and February.

However, the positive sentiment may not fully capture the impact from the Iran war, as the survey period ended in March.

“While the survey signals strong momentum going into the conflict, the outlook for activity in the coming months is increasingly murky, with every day and week that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed compounding the challenge of soaring energy costs and supply chain disruptions,” Neumann said.

Neumann highlighted the Tankan was a “somewhat backward looking” survey, discounting the uncertainty of the conflict in the Gulf and its impact on energy costs and supply chains.

This view was also echoed by Norihiro Yamaguchi, lead Japan economist at Oxford Economics. Yamaguchi said that “many responses do not appear to reflect the escalation of Iran conflict fully, given the survey period,” in an email to CNBC.

As such, Yamaguchi said he expects that higher energy prices will dampen corporate sentiments moving forward, by worsening their terms of trade, the ratio of a country’s export to import prices.

The data comes as Japan grapples with the fallout from the Iran war, with the country releasing oil stockpiles and enacting fuel subsidies to stave off the worst of the energy shock from the closed Strait of Hormuz.

Japan is dependent on imports for over 87% of its energy needs, according to data from the International Energy Authority.

Reuters reported that a 10% increase in crude oil prices ​could boost Japan’s consumer inflation rate by up to 0.3 percentage point over about a year.