Oil supply crunch will worsen in April, IEA warns

The coming month will see an intensification of the oil supply glut that has driven prices sharply higher since the start of the Iran war, according to the head of the International Energy Agency.

Speaking to the “In Good Company” podcast hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Birol said the energy crisis sparked by the U.S.-Iran war was the worst in history.

“The next month, April, will be much worse than March,” he said. He explained that in March there were already some cargo ships carrying oil and gas that transited through the Strait of Hormuz before the war broke out.

“They are still coming to ports, still bringing oil and energy and other [things],” he said. “In April, there is nothing. The loss of oil in April will be twice the loss of oil in March. On top of that you have LNG and others. It will come through to inflation, I think it will cut economic growth in many countries, especially emerging economies. In many countries the rationing of energy may be coming soon.”

U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that American forces would leave Iran “in two or three weeks,” prompting a broad relief rally across financial markets.

But Birol said the war, currently in its fifth week, had already created a deeper glut than those seen in previous crises such as those in the 1970s and following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

“When you look at the [1973 and 1979], in both of them we lost each about 5 million barrels per day of oil. These oil crises led to global recession in many countries,” he told Tangen. “Today, we lost 12 million barrels per day — more than two of these oil crises put together.”

He added that the gas supplies being lost as a result of the conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, also exceed the amount lost to the market when Russian gas flows were disrupted four years ago.

“The current crisis is more than all these three put together. Plus, in addition to this, there are many vital commodities — petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur — they are very important for the global supply chains,” he said. “We are heading towards a major, major disruption, and the biggest in history.”

Birol also said the IEA was mulling another release of its strategic oil reserves, as the conflict in the Middle East drags on.

“We are assessing the market on a daily, if not hourly, basis, 24/7. If we think there is a need, we may well make a suggestion [to release more reserves],” Birol said. “The biggest problem today is the lack of jet fuel and diesel; these are the main challenges and we are seeing it already in Asia, but soon, in April, or maybe beginning of May, it will come to Europe.”

Earlier this month, the IEA’s 32 member countries agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles to offset some of the supply disruption arising from the Iran war.

“When the time is right I will make the decision to make a suggestion to governments,” Birol added in Thursday’s podcast episode — but he noted that releasing another batch of reserves would not end the problem in energy markets.

“This is only helping to reduce the pain, it will not be a cure,” he explained. “The cure is opening up the Strait of Hormuz. We are gaining some time, but I don’t claim that this will be a solution, our stock release.”

Oil prices have skyrocketed since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, sparking retaliatory strikes across the Gulf from Tehran. Over the course of March, global benchmark Brent crude oil surged more than 60%, marking the biggest monthly price gain since records began in the 1980s.

In recent weeks, the IEA unveiled a list of recommendations to help soften the impact of the global energy crisis. They included reducing speed limits for vehicles, working from home and reducing the use of gas-operated ovens.