Jim Cramer’s top 10 things to watch in the stock market Monday

1. Dow futures are down almost 500 points this morning and WTI crude is back above $100 a barrel after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would implement a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Peace talks between Washington and Tehran were unsuccessful this weekend. I feared the market was acting overconfident last week.

2. In my Sunday column for Investing Club subscribers, I explored Wall Street’s three main battlegrounds (Iran war, the software stock rout and earnings season) with the goal of answering the question on everybody’s mind: Why has the market been so resilient? The bond market has a lot to do with it.

3. Club name Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings. Stronger investment banking revenues and record equities trading were both highlights. Excellent return on equity. Fixed-income trading was a blemish. The stock is down on the numbers, but it’s still at a very high level after rallying 16% off its mid-March low. We want to hear about the dealmaking pipeline on its 9:30 a.m. ET conference call.

4. Devastating Best Buy double downgrade at Goldman Sachs. Analysts took the retailer to sell from buy, and lowered their price target to $59 from $76. They’re worried about the impact of high memory prices on computer sales and continued struggles in appliances. Best Buy has been raising its dividend, but is that sustainable if top-line pressure persists? The yield is already 6%.

5. On the other hand, Goldman upgraded Williams-Sonoma to buy from hold. With shares down about 14% from their February highs, analysts said this is a good entry point. They like the steady improvement at West Elm, plans to open new locations across its store portfolio and the upcoming relaunch of college decor brand Dormify. CEO Laura Alber has done a great job here.

6. TD Cowen upgraded Modelo brewer Constellation Brands to buy from hold. Analysts are betting that Constellation’s fiscal 2027 guidance issued last week will prove conservative. They also see the World Cup this summer as a sales driver and said pressure on Hispanic customers is subsiding. Could that easing pressure also benefit Club name Home Depot? We know its parking lots were targeted by ICE.

7. Haven’t seen a lot of these lately: Evercore upgraded a handful of homebuilders, saying much of the bad news around the sluggish housing market is already priced in. That should limit the downside from here. They went to buy from hold on Pultegroup and Toll Brothers. They also upgraded Masco, the maker of Behr paint and plumbing products, to buy.

8. BTIG initiated coverage of Adobe with a hold rating, citing concerns about its long-term revenue and margin trajectory. AI is “raising a host of questions about the future of the creative ecosystem,” analysts wrote. Excellent way to put those challenges into a sentence. AI disruption worries have also crushed shares of Club name Salesforce, but I think Adobe’s business is at greater risk of real displacement.

9. Club name Starbucks was upgraded to hold from sell at Jefferies. Analysts are more positive on the stock now that Starbucks finalized the joint venture for its China operations and its U.S. business is stabilizing. The stock’s valuation is still a bit rich for their liking. I continue to believe in CEO Brian Niccol’s revitalization vision.

10. Citi raised its price target on Cummins to $710 from $630 ahead of Q1 earnings. Analysts pointed to an improving North American truck market, which is goods news for the heavy-duty engine maker. The Street is way behind on these machinery stocks because of the data center buildout. They’re still valuing them as trucking names. Same with Caterpillar to some degree. Citi took its PT on Caterpillar to $905 from $785 in the same note.

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