Software has joined the market comeback. Is the bottom in for Microsoft and others?
One big part of the stock market is finally joining the market party: Software. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has jumped more than 11% this week, clawing back some of its steep declines for the year. IGV is still down more than 21% in 2026 on fears that artificial intelligence will take market share from software companies. This week’s rebound coincided with the S & P 500 returning to all-time highs. This move may signal that the aggressive selling in software providers is over for now, according to Bank of America technical strategist Paul Ciana. “Down as much as ~37% from its September peak, the fifth wave down may be over with familiar support in the mid-$70s holding and price attempting to reclaim the 200-week [simple moving average] at $81.78,” Ciana wrote to clients. “We see no clear structural bottom pattern yet … But we do see potential for a head and shoulders base to form to lead a three-wave summer rally.” IGV YTD bar iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF in 2026 Put another way, this may be a bottom for IGV, but not the bottom . For some of the fund’s top holdings, however, the worst may be over, according to Ciana. Here’s what he said: Microsoft: the chart analyst said there’s an “oversold recovery underway” for the Windows and XBox owner. Levels to watch include $413, $431 and $454. The stock closed Wednesday trading at $411. Oracle: “After peaking near $343 in 2025, Oracle shares declined roughly 60% to a low around $135. The selloff appears to have completed a five‑wave decline into a confluence of long‑term support in the $130s,” Ciana said. Palantir Technologies: Ciana said he’s waiting for a “double bottom” to form around the $120 level, with relative strength and other technical measures supporting this view. Palantir closed Wednesday at $142.15. Salesforce: CRM is the worst performer in the group, down nearly 33% year to date. But Ciana said shares have found support around $160, adding that a bullish divergence in its relative strength index (RSI) also suggests upside from current prices. Palo Alto Networks: PANW has fallen 11% this year but has recently found support around $140 and closed Wednesday at $164.11. “By holding support at these levels, PANW may be in the early stages of forming a base. Momentum signals are starting to improve, with RSI breaking higher, [Moving Average Convergence Divergence] turning up toward a bullish crossover, and relative performance versus the S & P 500 stabilizing,” said Ciana. BofA isn’t the only Wall Street shop seeing a turnaround in software. Barclays’ trading desk said Thursday: “While overall sentiment on software remains cautious, on the trading desk and from my investor conversations, we have seen a more favorable shift in the past few days around the higher-quality large cap enterprise names, most notably MSFT (both [hedge fund] covering and interest from longer-term investors). Over the past few days, MSFT is also seemingly benefiting from increased demand from investors for names levered to compute that have trailed behind this year (ORCL also benefiting but haven’t seen the flows/positive feedback from investors).”
<
