The airlines facing the biggest hit from Europe’s jet fuel crisis
Wizz Air will be hit hardest by the jet fuel crisis impacting Europe’s airline industry, according to analysts at Morningstar — but Ryanair and British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group could be best placed to weather the supply squeeze that threatens to upend the continent’s summer travel plans. Airlines with stronger margin buffers, better fuel hedging, and lower direct operational exposure to the Middle East are among those expected to best weather the looming travel turmoil, Loredana Muharremi, equity analyst at Morningstar, wrote in a note on Wednesday. “In Europe, that points to Ryanair among low-cost carriers and IAG among network carriers. By contrast, Wizz Air is the most exposed, given lower full-year hedge protection, a higher fuel cost share, and weaker margin cushion,” she said. However, she warned that even the best-hedged airlines are only “partially-shielded” from the soaring fuel prices. WIZZ-GB 3M mountain Wizz Air. London-listed, low-cost Hungarian carrier Wizz Air has the lowest full-year hedge for 2026, which at about 55% is a ‘very low’ margin buffer, according to Morningstar data. Ryanair, in contrast, has a ‘high’ full-year at 80%, with IAG — which owns British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus and Vueling — at 62%. Germany’s Lufthansa is 77% hedged, while London-listed budget carrier EasyJet is at about 70%. Between 25% and 35% of global jet fuel supply is shipped through the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane in the Middle East, which has remained mostly closed since hostilities between the U.S. and its allies and Iran began on Feb. 28. IAG-GB 3M mountain International Consolidated Airlines Group. The International Energy Agency last week warned that Europe could run out of jet fuel within six weeks. Despite the ceasefire extension announced by U.S. President Donald Trump late Tuesday, the maritime corridor remains volatile , which has left oil prices elevated and jet fuel supply restricted — leading to capacity cuts among many carriers. Muharremi said European airlines entered the crisis reasonably well-protected — but warned that fuel hedges are “front-loaded and thinning fast.” “Since the outbreak of the conflict, jet fuel prices have doubled versus roughly a one-third rise in crude oil, so even well-hedged airlines are only partially shielded,” Muharremi told CNBC via email. 0A2U-GB 3M mountain Ryanair. European airlines have already slashed short haul capacity for April and May, with the region’s ‘big three’ network carriers — Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, and IAG — also cutting transatlantic capacity, Bank of America analysis shows. BofA analysts also said in a note Wednesday that some European carriers have pushed capacity back from the second quarter into the third quarter. “Operationally, the impact is real but uneven and direct Middle East revenue exposure is still relatively limited for most European airlines,” Muharremi said. “The bigger issue is rerouting – often adding one to three hours on Europe-Asia sectors – which raises fuel burn, reduces aircraft utilization, and complicates crew scheduling.” EZJ-GB 3M mountain EasyJet. EasyJet last week warned that volatile oil prices will weigh on costs over the coming months, impacting customer bookings. Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said costs pressures will continue as the year progress, adding that airlines are unlikely to lock in new fuel hedges at current high prices amid ongoing uncertainty. That will leave elevated costs effectively built-in for months ahead, Hewson explained, adding that the key unknown now is fuel availability and how competition for supply could unfold. “For airlines it’s all about bums on seats – they want full flights on both legs of a journey to help offset increased costs. Margins on low-cost airlines are always tight, and fuel is an outsized cost which means they’re already being squeezed hard by the energy shock. Cancellations mean friction and friction increases costs in a myriad of ways.”
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