Outlook for May 4-8, 2026
If next week’s jobs report shows a still resilient labor market, that could relieve investors wary of a weakening economic outlook. The U.S. economy is expected to have added just 50,000 jobs in April, far below the prior blowout reading of 178,000, according to FactSet consensus estimates. The unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 4.3%. A “goldilocks” report could alleviate fears of a weakening U.S. economy, as some recent signals have suggested. On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product grew at a 2% seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the first quarter, higher than 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, but below the 2.2% estimate. Bob Lang, founder and chief options analyst at Explosive Options, expects a strong jobs number could be welcome news for the stock market, though he also doesn’t expect it will do much to the interest rate outlook. That’s because the latest Federal Reserve meeting suggested a reduction isn’t in the cards anytime soon, after three dissents on the policy statement showed a lack of support for an “easing bias” in the current moment. Markets have adjusted their expectations as well. After coming into the year pricing in two rate cuts, the recent fed funds futures pricing shows little likelihood of a reduction coming until well through next year. Sell in May There are other reasons to be wary. Investors are coming up on what’s seasonally the worst six months for the stock market, a historical pattern referred to in the stock market maxim: “Sell in May and go away.” A number of voices in various parts of Wall Street have suggested though that this time could be different. JPMorgan’s trading desk found that the S & P 500 has averaged a return of 1.5% in May , with a 1.9% pop in June over the last 10 years. In July, the broader index has averaged 3.4% advance. That has been especially true during the Trump presidency. Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, said in an email earlier this week that the stock market has tended to bottom in March and April before going on to rally for the rest of the year. But the new trading month — which was off to a solid start on Friday as the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite scored record highs — comes after a notably strong April for equities. Those two indexes saw their best monthly performance since 2020, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched its best month since November 2024. The three major averages also scored a winning week, with the S & P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.9% and 1.1%, respectively, while the Dow gained 0.6%. What’s clear is that volatility will continue to remain in the market, especially with earnings season still ongoing. A little over half of the S & P 500 have posted results thus far. Of those, more than 80% have beat expectations. Nvidia is among the reports still to come, but it’s not expected to release results until later this month. Next week brings more reports from some major AI names, including Palantir Technologies and Advanced Micro Devices . Major Dow components such as Walt Disney will also be reporting. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday May 4 10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (March) 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (March) Earnings: Palantir Technologies , Diamondback Energy , Williams Cos. , Vertex Pharmaceuticals , Paramount Skydance , ON Semiconductor , Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings , Loews , Tyson Foods Tuesday May 5 9:45 a.m. S & P Global PMI Services final (April) 10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (April) 10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (March) 10:00 a.m. New Home Sales (March) Earnings: Healthpeak Properties , Advanced Micro Devices , Live Nation Entertainment , Electronic Arts , Arista Networks , Super Micro Computer , Prudential Financial , Occidental Petroleum , Lumentum Holdings , International Flavors & Fragrances , EOG Resources , Emerson Electric , Devon Energy , Corteva , Public Service Enterprise Group , TransDigm Group , Huntington Ingalls Industries , Rockwell Automation , Duke Energy , KKR & Co. , Pfizer , Marathon Petroleum , Revvity , Gartner , Archer-Daniels-Midland , PayPal Wednesday May 6 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (April) Earnings: CF Industries , MetLife , Albemarle , Fortinet , Applovin , Axon Enterprise , Warner Bros. Discovery , Texas Pacific Land Corp. , TKO Group , Host Hotels & Resorts , DoorDash , Coherent , Marriott International , Fastenal , Uber Technologies , Global Payments , Exelon , Bio-Techne , Apollo Global Management , Insulet , NRG Energy , The Kraft Heinz Co. , The Walt Disney Co. , CVS Health Thursday May 7 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (05/02) 8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs preliminary (Q1) 8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q1) 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (March) 3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (March) Earnings: Mettler-Toledo International , News Corp. , Block , The Trade Desk , Expedia Group , Akamai Technologies , Wynn Resorts , Motorola Solutions , McKesson , Microchip Technology , Gilead Sciences , Consolidated Edison , Coinbase Global , Airbnb , Zoetis , Howmet Aerospace , Datadog , Tapestry , McDonald’s , Kenvue Friday May 8 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (April) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (April) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (April) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (April) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (April) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (April) 10:00 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (May) 10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories (March) Earnings: PPL
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