Why higher beef prices don’t derail case for owning Texas Roadhouse
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets: Stocks are slightly lower to close out the week in what has been a relatively quiet session. The market took a little bit of a spill — though nothing too significant — after the Financial Times reported that President Donald Trump is now seeking a minimum tariff of 15% to 20% on all goods imported to the U.S. from the European Union. That’s still down from the 30% rate the president threatened last Saturday, but it shows the two sides may still be far apart in reaching an agreement. Beef troubles brewing : Shares of Club name Texas Roadhouse have stumbled lately. Since closing near $200 on May 27, the stock has fallen roughly 8%, while the S & P 500 has climbed 6% over the same period. Part of the reason why the stock hasn’t kept up with the broader market is accelerating beef inflation. In a restaurant industry second-quarter earnings preview note on Friday, analysts at Bank of America pointed out that beef prices rose about 15% year over year in the second quarter compared to a more moderate 4.3% increase in the first quarter. As a steakhouse chain, beef is one of Texas Roadhouse’s biggest expenses, making the recent price spike problematic. Swings in the commodity affect operating margins – they tend rise when commodity prices fall and are more stubborn when prices jump and can’t be offset with menu prices increases. Still, rising beef prices didn’t prevent Bank of America from raising its price target on Texas Roadhouse to $219 a share from $203 on Friday. Analysts at BofA increased their price target because they are ahead of the consensus estimate for both earnings per share and same-store sales through the rest of 2025 as well as 2026 and 2027, expecting the company to continue gaining share in the full-service steak category. Beef prices have poked some holes in this story, but we’re in Bank of America’s camp about the long-term trajectory of the business. The company continues to post best-in-class traffic trends and is steadily expanding with new locations each year. It’s going to take some time for cattle inventory and herd sizes to rebuild, but we’re willing to be patient. Next week: Earnings pick up next week with about 20% of the S & P 500 scheduled to report. We’ll be hearing from five companies in the portfolio: Danaher , Capital One , GE Vernova , Honeywell , and Dover . We’ll be out Sunday with a deeper look at what we’re expecting for each Club name. Some other big headliners next week are Tesla , Alphabet , ServiceNow , Chipotle , IBM , and Coca-Cola . (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
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