MGM has room to run, powered by resilient Las Vegas tourism: JPMorgan
MGM Resorts International is likely to gain ground as Las Vegas Strip tourism powers ahead, according to JPMorgan. The investment bank upgraded MGM to overweight from neutral on Wednesday, raising its 12-month price target on the casino operator to $46 from $41, implying 10% upside from the last close. “Our more favorable view on MGM reflects growing conviction that MGM LV Strip EBITDAR estimates have bottomed, and that growth should improve in the coming months off of easier comparisons and against the backdrop of a resilient U.S. leisure traveler,” analyst Daniel Politzer wrote in a 33-page report to clients. Shares of MGM jumped 9% on Wednesday in reaction to the upgrade, bringing the past 12 months’ advance to 31%. MGM 5D mountain MGM stock popped 9% on Wednesday. The re-rating comes as the number of visitors to Sin City has remained relatively stable in 2026, despite concerns that higher fuel prices linked to the Iran war could limit travel to the gaming and entertainment hub. As of the end of April, Las Vegas had welcomed about 9.7 million tourists so far in 2026 – roughly in line with tourism trends for the year prior, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority . In the desert city, tourist traffic has remained strong due to value-oriented promotions at casino-hotels on the Strip, in addition to visits from drive-in customers, according to JPMorgan. “There’s no shortage of cheap Gaming stocks, but MGM is one of the few where estimates are poised to move higher,” MGM has 12 hotels on the Las Vegas Strip, including the Aria, Bellagio and MGM Grand, according to its website . In a separate note to clients dated May 27, JPMorgan’s Politzer said those properties and others could see more business following the opening of Hard Rock Las Vegas in late 2027. “The Strip’s ability to absorb incremental supply at any point depends on multiple factors (LV Strip health, concurrent openings, macro, etc.), but historically, the impact on existing properties has been neutral to slightly positive,” Politzer wrote in the note. In an analysis of 20 resort and casino openings in Las Vegas, JPMorgan found that market-wide visits rose 6%, on average, year over year, following a major new property opening. Industry room revenue grew by an average of 11%, while gross-gaming revenue jumped 8%, the same analysis showed. JPMorgan’s recommendation on MGM bucks the consensus on Wall Street, where 12 out of 27 analysts rate the stock no more than a hold, and three rate it a sell.
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