Evercore ISI says landmark SpaceX IPO could reignite bull market, send S&P 500 to 9,000
The SpaceX IPO is about to kick off the next leg of the bull market, according to Evercore ISI. Equity strategist Julian Emanuel expects that Friday’s debut of the rocket maker could send the S & P 500 to 9,000 in his bull case, or more than 20% above last week’s close of 7,431.46. His base case of 7,750 implies just a 4% increase from current levels. Emanuel likened the early enthusiasm around SpaceX to the Netscape IPO of 1995 that ushered in a period of optimism around the internet before the bubble eventually burst in 2000. He expects that SpaceX, along with major upcoming debuts from Anthropic and OpenAI, will similarly mark a psychological turning point for the market. “SPCX’s IPO today, like Netscape 30 years ago, could catalyze ‘Dream Big FOMO’ and the next leg of the Bull Market,” Emanuel said. “Early enthusiasm is positive for landmark IPOs.” SPCX 1D mountain SpaceX, 1-day Of course, there is also fear that the IPOs could mark an imminent market top. And, Emanuel said the S & P 500 tends to post below average returns the more the cycle matures. But the absence of any meaningful recession signals, and elevated yields that remain contained, suggest any peak could be some time away. The amount of liquidity remaining on the sidelines is another reason the strategist is optimistic. With a record $7.9 trillion in money market funds, there’s enough runway for SpaceX and the broader market to go much higher if investors who took a wait-and-see approach to the IPO suddenly decide they want in, the strategist said. And, Emanuel said the IPO activity is relatively restrained. While the valuations and capital raises of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI have raised eyebrows, the annual IPO volumes are actually tame when compared to history. Equity issuance is currently projected to be at 0.5% of S & P 500 market cap. Meanwhile, annual IPO volumes before major market peaks of the last 30 years topped out at 0.75% in 1999, 0.91% in 2007, and 0.88% in 2021. “All to say that, on the one hand, the blockbuster Tech IPOs of 2026 understandably draw comparisons to 1999 or even 2021,” Emanuel wrote. “On the other hand, the absence of relative volume and deal count indicators that have accompanied past IPO frenzies, in conjunction with a record $7.9T in money market cash on the sidelines, suggests the possibility that the peak of the cycle is further off, should be considered.”
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