Churn marked by Apple fueling S&P 500 rally
(These are the market notes on today’s action by Mike Santoli, CNBC’s Senior Markets Commentator. See today’s video update from Mike above.) Another day of mild churn in the market under the surface of a headline S & P 500 rally that was largely propelled by Apple shares. The S & P 500 has spent the week in the range, bounded by last Thursday’s all-time high above 6400 and Friday’s low near 6200, set after the shock of that jarringly weak July employment report. Almost exactly as many stocks were up versus down on the day across the NYSE and Nasdaq, allowing volatility to settle back a bit. Apple ‘s near-6% pop on reports that it will sidestep newly raised tariffs on imports from India as it pledges another $100 billion in U.S. investments is a measure of the degree to which the stock has been held back by such trade-policy concerns. The move contributed almost half the S & P 500’s 0.8% gain. Even after today’s jump, Apple stock is lagging the performance of the Nasdaq-100 by 25 percentage points so far this year – representing plenty of room for catch-up but also reflecting the market’s skepticism of the company’s answer to the AI boom. Earnings reports continue to come in generally ahead of forecasts yet on balance are being met by “sell-the-news” action in the stocks. AMD , Walt Disney and Emerson Electric all struggled today due to varying levels of disappointment with insufficiently exuberant outlooks. All three stocks had strong runs in recent months. McDonalds was the notable exception, with the shares up almost 4% after solid results, after the stock had been flattish over the prior six months. Signals on the condition of consumers continue to be staticky. McDonalds flags softer U.S. store traffic , travel stocks have generally backed off, yet Disney’s domestic parks performance was strong and big-box retailer stocks outperformed today. Growing expectations of a September rate cut are likely firming up sentiment toward this group. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding just above 4.2% , a level it’s spent very little time below over the past year except when the market was undergoing a “growth scare” (last summer/fall and in the April tariff panic). A sharp twitch higher in yield just before noon seemed to coincide with a sudden drop in the prediction-market odds of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh being nominated by President Trump as the next Fed chair. Unclear if the Treasury market will continue to key off of this horserace; perhaps only in the absence of macro inputs such as tomorrow’s weekly jobless claims and next Tuesday’s July CPI report. Widespread expectations that the market was due for a bout of seasonal weakness in August have been met with a one-day air pocket on Friday and moderate choppiness since. The market has sometimes in recent years managed to cool off through sideways action and constant rotation rather than meaty pullbacks. Bulls are likely hoping for the former while keeping in mind the latter possibility.
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