These stocks offer rising dividends, Morgan Stanley says
Even as the market trades near record highs, dividend payers – particularly those that have lifted their payments – can bolster portfolios in rocky times. The S & P 500 touched a fresh all-time high on Friday, and it has surged 9.6% in 2025. The broad market index is up more than 30% from its April low, back when the Trump administration announced a slate of tariffs that rattled investors. Dividend-paying stocks can offer investors some measure of safety from these jolts, though. “In periods of elevated risks and valuations, dividends become [a] more important part of investors’ total returns, dampening volatility and providing some support to stock prices,” wrote Morgan Stanley strategist Todd Castagno in a Thursday report. Higher dividend yields that are durable are also attractive during times of slowing growth and falling interest rates, he added. Not all dividend payers are built equally, though. Yields that are unusually high could imply that the stock price is on a downward trajectory, and dividends that are unsustainable could ultimately be slashed if a company falls on hard times. Castagno’s team screened through the Russell 1000 for companies with a dividend yield of at least 0.25% and a quarter-over-quarter dividend hike of at least 15% over the last 12 months. Here are a few of the names that turned up. Software giant Oracle made the cut on Morgan Stanley’s list. The stock offers a modest current dividend yield of 0.8%, but shares are up about 49% in 2025. In June, the company posted fiscal fourth-quarter results that surpassed expectations. Forward guidance was rosy, with CEO Safra Catz anticipating more than $67 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, compared with the LSEG consensus of $65.18 billion. Mizuho analyst Siti Panigrahi lifted the firm’s price target on Oracle to $300 from $245 on Friday, pointing to the company’s emergence as a structural artificial intelligence winner. “With its end-to-end AI stack, spanning vertical and horizontal applications, mission-critical database technology, and infrastructure for AI training/inference, Oracle is well positioned to capture a disproportionate share of AI-driven enterprise spend over time,” Panigrahi wrote. The analyst noted that AI momentum is “paving the path to the trillion-dollar club.” Analysts like the stock, with 29 out of 42 rating it a buy or strong buy, per LSEG, but the average price target of $247.23 implies Oracle shares’ upside could be limited. American Homes 4 Rent also turned up on the firm’s screen. Shares of the real estate investment trust, which focuses on single-family rentals, are down nearly 8% in 2025. The stock has a current dividend yield of 3.5%. Mizuho analyst Haendel St. Juste stuck with his outperform rating last week, but trimmed back his price target to $36 per share from $38. “All-around execution and higher development yields drive FY25 core portfolio and [funds from operations] guidance raise,” he wrote. Funds from operations , or FFO, reflects how much cash flow a REIT generates from its business. American Homes recently lifted its FFO guidance for 2025 to a midpoint of $1.86 per share, up three cents – thanks in part to better-than-anticipated development yields, St. Juste wrote. Thirteen out of 24 analysts covering the stock rate it a buy or strong buy, and consensus price targets call for 18% upside, per LSEG. Morgan Stanley also highlighted wireless communications giant T-Mobile . The stock is up 16% in 2025 and has a dividend yield of 1.4%. The firm is also bullish on T-Mobile, with Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne rating the stock overweight. He did, however, trim his price target to $265 from $280 last month. The move was “mainly to address the overhang of secondary stock sales.” In all, 18 out of 31 analysts covering T-Mobile see it as a buy or strong buy, but consensus price targets suggest just 5% upside from current levels, per LSEG. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
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