We’re sticking with an old-school rubric to grade the success of Disney’s new ESPN service
ESPN entered into a new era on Thursday with the iconic sports channel finally becoming available as a standalone streaming service. For investors, the thing that matters most is the same as it ever was: Good old-fashioned revenues and profits. In an interview Thursday on CNBC, Disney CEO Bob Iger said the company is not planning to break out subscriber numbers for the new ESPN offering — perhaps against the wishes of some investors who wanted to see those figures. The streaming service, which provides access to all of ESPN’s channels along with some additional personalization features, costs $29.99 a month, or $299.99 a year. An ad-supported bundle with Disney+ and Hulu is $35.99 a month, or $44.99 without ads. The ESPN+ service that Disney had been offering for years didn’t have everything available on the cable channels. Iger argued the subscribers numbers for the direct-to-consumer ESPN service are “irrelevant,” and instead said Disney is taking more of an “agnostic” approach. “We don’t feel like the way to measure this is immediate, nor do we feel like the way to measure this is in just subscribers,” Iger told CNBC’s David Faber. There’s no question that some people look at subscriber numbers as a key metric to evaluate the success of streaming platforms, but we don’t think keeping it in house is a bad decision. It’s not without precedent. Streaming pioneer Netflix stopped providing their subscriber totals this year. Go back further, and in November 2018, Apple stopped reporting how many iPhones, iPads and Mac computers it was selling — looking instead to focus investor attention on what should actually matter: revenue, earnings and cash flows. Subscriber numbers are double-edged sword. Investors love a stock when the numbers are increasing and hate it when they aren’t. Providing those numbers initially only to take them away later is almost always viewed as a negative — in reality, that holds true no matter the metric. Investors value transparency, and there’s a general belief that if a company is no longer reporting something, it’s because management doesn’t want investors to see a slowdown or, even worse, a decline. After all, why hide a metric if it’s only improving? While we understand some will take issue with Disney’s decision on ESPN subscribers, viewing it as a defensive move, we think it is the smarter long-term play. As we saw with both Netflix and Apple, when investors don’t get the subscriber figures or unit sales, they tend to throw a fit, claim management is hiding something, and sell the stock. But eventually, they get over it and refocus on what actually matters: the money. Forgoing subscriber numbers from the start avoids this headache down the line and from Day One keeps investors focused on the overall financial success of ESPN. The same is true for management. It needs to be focused on growing ESPN overall, especially its bottom line. Of course, the company can update investors when certain subscriber milestones are reached. But there’s a risk in chasing subscriber growth at the expense of profits — something we saw during the pandemic-era streaming wars. Wall Street was obsessed with subscriber growth during Covid, and companies with new streaming platforms — Disney among them — priced the services low enough to attract tons of sign-ups, while losing piles of money in the process. The whole paradigm changed in 2022 around the time the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. The market woke up to the idea that having a path to profitability was important and the right way to view these businesses. Yes, subscriber numbers are important but these numbers can be greased via promotional activity or, as mentioned, just generally underpricing the service. The last thing we want is for management to focus on subscribers just to please Wall Street, rather than doing whatever is in the best interest of generating the largest profits possible over the long term. It should also be noted that cable subscribers will be granted access to the app. Even if these people don’t count as paying subscribers to the streaming service specifically, giving them access makes it easier for Disney to monetize the app — whether that’s through advertisements or features such as sports betting, the more eyeballs the better. The distinction between digital subscriber or cable subscriber doesn’t matter in that regard. “We think this will contribute nicely to ESPN’s bottom line over time as engagement grows,” Iger told CNBC on Thursday. Additionally, with Disney now saying it’s agnostic whether people are watching ESPN through their cable bundle or directly on the app, it makes perfect sense to manage the division as a unified entity, with the focus being on financial success rather than some metric not found on the income or cash-flow statement. Rather than shift the focus from linear offerings to digital ones, just run the whole company well. Importantly, this isn’t a change in the reporting structure. In Disney’s quarterly results, it will still report its “Sports” division as usual — recall, we’ve never gotten ESPN channel viewership in those reports. Sure, Nielsen tracks viewership and we hear how many people tuned into major sporting events. But it’s not part of every earnings release. To be sure, Disney has continued to provide subscriber numbers for Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ and we do value getting those insights – so long as there’s no signs that management is prioritizing subscriber growth over profitability. All their recent actions on this front, including last year’s round of price hikes, signal profits are the north star. The bottom line is that we take no issue with Disney withholding subscriber numbers for the new ESPN streaming platform. It keeps the focus on the profits and allows Disney to manage the ESPN division as a whole. We think the increased personalization and interactivity offered on the app will increase engagement with the ESPN brand and in turn boost ESPN’s bottom line. In the end, that’s what will determine where the stock goes from here — not the disclosure of how many people have signed up for the long-awaited service. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long DIS. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. 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