A resilient consumer isn’t an all-clear for investing in retailers and restaurants
Bank leaders seem to have reached a consensus: Despite a minefield of uncertainties this year, the U.S. consumer has remained surprisingly resilient. The takeaway for stock-pickers, though, is far from clear-cut. Ranging from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy to the path of interest rates and a cooling labor market, the questions looming over the economy in 2025 are manifold. The ongoing government shutdown is the latest wrinkle, presenting risks to both the actual economy and investors’ ability to understand what’s going on due to the lack of economic data collection. Through it all, the banking world is still painting a picture of an economy that hasn’t cracked yet. At Wells Fargo , spending in both credit and debit cards remains up “week after week after week after week,” CEO Charlie Scharf said Tuesday at the Economic Club of New York. “There’s this general level of growth and spend that you see. Consumers are spending, but they’re not drawing down savings to do that. If you look at overall savings rates, deposit balances are increasing slightly,” Scharf said. “And they’re not doing that at the expense of credit performance” either. Earnings from the nation’s largest banks and credit card issuers, including Scharf’s own Wells Fargo, have amplified this upbeat view even further over the past week. “The U.S. consumer and the overall macro economy have been quite resilient so far in 2025,” Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank said on its earnings call Tuesday night. “The unemployment rate has ticked up a bit recently, but remains quite low by historical standards.” While Fairbank added that “some consumers are feeling pressure from the accumulated effects of price inflation and higher interest rates,” it hasn’t materially dented Capital One’s results. The company, one of largest U.S. credit card issuers, posted a better-than-expected quarterly earnings report , supported by improvements in credit quality performance. As a result, the Club reiterated its buy-equivalent 1 rating and maintained a $250 price target on the stock. “At a high level, the story that we’re trying to tell is one that’s anchored on the current facts,” said Jeremy Barnum, the CFO of the nation’s largest bank by assets, JPMorgan Chase , on the firm’s earnings call last week. “And the current facts on the consumer side is that the consumer is resilient. Spending is strong and delinquency rates are actually coming in below expectations. So, those are facts that we really can’t escape.” These are facts that investors in consumer-facing stocks like us can’t escape either. Investors should be heartened by the optimism from these financial executives, while recognizing more discernment is needed before taking any sort of action at the stock level. Jim Cramer has long believed that taking only a top-down view on picking stocks can be sheer folly. “You always hear about missing the forest for the trees, but when you’re picking stocks, it’s just as important not to miss the trees for the forest,” Jim has said. In practice that means, investors must consider both a company’s underlying fundamentals and broader forces that may impact an entire sector. Take Costco , for example. The Club didn’t initiate a position solely because of a single trend. We think it’s the best-run retailer in the world. Costco has an extremely loyal customer base both due to its reasonable prices and membership model. It certainly helps that during moments of high inflation and squeezed budgets, shareholders can count on the bulk retailer to gain appeal among shoppers. It’s a similar story to TJX Companies. The firm offers inflation-weary customers quality merchandise at affordable price points, an excellent combination regardless of the economic backdrop. Plus, as an off-price retailer, the parent of Marshalls and HomeGoods is better equipped to navigate tariffs compared to peers that directly import a lot of their merchandise. At Nike , there’s more to consider than high-level consumer spending patterns. In September, we started a position in the global sportswear leader because of its long-term turnaround story under CEO Elliott Hill. Nike was previously one of the best growth stories for decades, but past leadership’s decisions have caused the stock to lag since late 2021. The same goes for Starbucks. The company’s ongoing rehabilitation under CEO Brian Niccol is a key reason why we’ve stuck it out in the stock for so long. Even though our investment in Starbucks is predicated on Niccol’s turnaround artistry, the coffee chain — like all consumer-facing companies like restaurants and retailers — is not immune to what’s going on in the economy. The state of play in restaurant stocks, in particular, exemplifies the shortcomings of a purely top-down view. In a note to clients Tuesday, analysts at Morgan Stanley reflected on the weak performance in restaurant stocks since last earnings season, noting that demand indicators in September “slowed visibly” and sentiment around the group is “poor in the near term.” “We don’t have a clean explanation for the downshift from Aug to Sept, except that perhaps the summer bucked reality a bit. This has brought forth questions about restaurants as a leading indicator of consumer pullback,” the analysts wrote. “We wouldn’t rush to that conclusion nor has it been readily visible in the past, but realistically, the companies saying ‘things are fine’ are usually either share takers or higher-end exposed, where things indeed seem to be fine.” The analysts also pointed out that inflation for its coverage universe has been “tame so far,” unless a company is selling beef or coffee. And that’s where Club name Texas Roadhouse comes into the picture. Despite being seen as a budget-friendly dinner for consumers, investors are worried about beef inflation pressuring its margins, making the stock a challenging one this year even as it checked the other boxes of our investment thesis. Like the rest of our portfolio though, we’ll analyze Texas Roadhouse’s upcoming quarterly earnings report on Nov. 6 for more direction on what to do with the stock next. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. 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