AI spending is spooking investors. But history shows that’s when you want to buy
Big Tech’s spending plans are spooking investors as of late, but these plans could also signal a buying opportunity, according to Canaccord Genuity. Stocks sold off last week as the latest quarterly reports from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Amazon and Alphabet revealed stepped up capital expenditure plans that revived worries about the spending if AI fails to become profitable. Here is Canaccord Genuity’s breakdown of the hyperscaler’s latest spending plans: Microsoft ‘s capex is expected to rise to $123 billion in 2026, up from $83 billion last year Meta to $125 billion, up from $72 billion Amazon to $155 billion, up from $125 billion Alphabet to $185 billion, up from $92 billion Together capital expenditures could reach $588 billion, or roughly 2% of expected U.S. GDP in 2026, the firm said. Amazon stock has tumbled about 12% so far this month. Microsoft and Alphabet are down more than 3%, each over the same period, while Meta has slid around 5%. The pullback could represent a buying opportunity in the megacaps so long as the companies’ growth profiles remain attractive, according to Michael Graham, analyst at Canaccord Genuity. “All of these companies will spend anywhere from 3-6x on capex this year compared with 2023, and these spending projections are set to amount to ~2.1% of US GDP in 2026 — in those terms, the largest infrastructure project in US history and just barely behind the Louisiana Purchase at ~3% (according to the WSJ),” Graham wrote in Monday note. “Historically, selloffs around spending plans have been good times to step into these names as long as growth is there,” Graham added. A number of the names have been punished recently despite reporting strong quarterly growth. Alphabet showed Google Cloud revenue growth accelerating to 48%, from 34% the prior quarter, on a year over year basis. Amazon Web Services revenue jumped 24% on a yearly basis, up from 20% the prior quarter. To be sure, spending will continue to remain a concern for investors. While the megacaps have massive cash reserves to fund their infrastructure buildouts, they’ve also started tapping debt markets to fund these projects — meaning investors will have to start monitoring how leverage is managed. Alphabet is looking to raise about $15 billion from a U.S. high-grade dollar bond sale, according to a Bloomberg report on Monday citing people familiar with the plans. In October, Meta issued $30 billion in investment grade debt to fund its data center buildout. Graham wrote, “it remains to be seen whether this spending wall might just be too high.” The overall market outlook outside of tech remains constructive. Graham pointed out that the S & P 500 breached support at its 50-day, 100-day moving averages last week, as well as support near 6,800, but the index managed to reclaim those levels by Friday. Meanwhile, the equal weighted S & P 500 outperformed, while cyclicals and small caps continued to rise on the rotation out of tech.
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