Bitcoin must reclaim $75,000 to herald risk-on recovery, charts show
Bitcoin has been among the leaders over the last few weeks, logging a key low in early February near $60,000 and testing the $75,000 zone this week. From a chart perspective, this has taken the shape of a potential cup-and-handle pattern. This setup looks very similar to the prior cup-and-handle that formed from Nov. 2025 through mid-January 2026. In fact, that last one arguably looked even more attractive than the current version. When the breakout occurred in the middle of January, it initially looked legitimate. But it lasted only about two days before rolling over and moving lower on a fairly consistent basis for three straight weeks, eventually leading to the most recent low. Since then, bitcoin has bounced from a very distinct oversold level, with the relative strength index getting as high as the 60s earlier this week. The recovery has been encouraging up to this point, especially with bitcoin attempting to extend from the 50-day moving average and the prior breakout zone, but it has not yet reached overbought territory. As mentioned, the January breakout attempt did push RSI into the 70s before ultimately rolling over. Like any bullish pattern breakout, forming the pattern is one thing — seeing upside follow-through is another. That is clearly the next and necessary step if this move is going to be any different from the failed attempts over the last several months. Bitcoin – another chance near the 50-DMA Just as important is how bitcoin behaves around its 50-day moving average here. As is clear, it is coming off its third drawdown of at least 32% over the past year. When bitcoin found a bid in April 2025 and reclaimed that line, immediate upside follow-through resulted. As we know, that move carried bitcoin from just below $75,000 to roughly $126,000 by last October. From there, another major drawdown of about 36% began. A bullish pattern formed during that period, but when the breakout failed to hold above the 50-day line, the ensuing decline became the largest of the three, reaching nearly 39%. Now the rally from February has once again pushed bitcoin back above a sharply downtrending 50-day moving average. We’ve seen this setup both succeed and fail in the past, but the blueprint is there showing how quickly momentum can return if we see stronger follow-through this time. Bitcoin top This chart shows just how important it is for bitcoin to get back above the $75,000 zone, given that it also represents the neckline of the large bearish formation that broke down earlier this year. Bitcoin vs. S & P 500 – bouncing With bitcoin having rallied and the S & P 500 (SPX) stalling the past few weeks, it’s not surprising that the Bitcoin vs. SPX relative line has bounced as well. That move has taken the relative line from decidedly oversold levels to pushing the RSI up to 40 this week. That’s nothing too impressive yet, but the relative line itself is attempting to respect a key uptrend line on this log chart that connects the Covid lows, the 2022 lows and the current level. Looking at Bitcoin versus the SPX, when that ratio bottomed during the prior two episodes, it helped usher in a very strong risk-on environment. Not many people expect that scenario to unfold again now, but that doesn’t mean we should ignore the possibility. Until then, it will be important to watch how this relative line behaves near the green uptrend line. As is clear, the two prior times when the BTC/SPX relative line made a key low, it also marked major lows for the SPX — March 2020 and Oct. 2022. Both instances followed meaningful bear markets — one lasting just a few weeks, the other roughly 10 months. By comparison, the SPX is only down about 5% from its January all-time high near 7,000, so it’s not directly comparable on that front. That said, plenty of areas beneath the surface have suffered much more damage — software and financials in particular. Regardless, these charts outline the implications for bitcoin from both a bullish and bearish perspective. First step: reclaim the $75k level. — Frank Cappelleri Founder: https://cappthesis.com DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
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