Bitcoin rebounds after drawdown hits 20%. Is the crypto winter over or just starting?
Bitcoin retraced some of its losses on Tuesday, just one day after a steep drawdown. But the token could plunge even deeper into the red if crypto winter sets in. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was last trading at $91,765.96, up 7.4% on the day. But on Monday, bitcoin had shed about 20% from its November high, briefly dipping below the critical $85,000 level at its lowest point. BTC.CM= 1M mountain 2025-12-01 Bitcoin has fallen steeply over the past month. The asset’s recent price action suggests the crypto bull run has turned bearish, according to analysts. A bear market, however, won’t likely run its course until bitcoin sees an 80% drawdown if previous market cycles serve as any indication, according to Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com. “Crypto winters are much longer than a few weeks, and if this proves to be one, it’s just the beginning,” Rodda told CNBC. “BTC could fall a lot more.” Bitcoin shed about 75% to 80% of its value in 2018 and 2022, he noted. So, where are we right now in the cycle? Bitcoin’s latest drawdown mirrors mid-cycle pullbacks of previous cycles, Ryan Li, CEO of Surf, a data firm that uses artificial intelligence to track digital assets market moves, told CNBC. “Bitcoin’s recent drawdown aligns closely with mid-cycle corrections seen in 2013, 2017 and 2021,” Li said. “The rebound, the depth of the move, and the on-chain structure support the view that this is a consolidation period rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.” “The conditions for a true bear market haven’t appeared yet,” he said, adding that bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle could be changing due to the influx of institutional capital into cryptocurrencies over the past year. “With institutional participation growing, market cycles are lengthening beyond the traditional four-year pattern and increasingly resemble five- to six-year expansions,” Li said. Regardless of where we are in the market cycle, bitcoin’s fundamentals continue to look strong, Sam Callahan, director of bitcoin strategy and research at OranjeBTC, told CNBC. “This decline comes even as bitcoin’s fundamentals continue to strengthen: we’re seeing rising institutional and sovereign adoption, greater regulatory clarity, and a network that has never been stronger,” Callahan said. “When prices and fundamentals diverge to this degree, it has often been a favorable time to begin or add to a long-term position,” he said.
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