Brewing trifecta drives stocks to records — plus, the treasure hunt at TJX
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Market moves: Stocks were rallying to start the week, with all three major stock benchmarks — the Dow , the S & P 500 , and the Nasdaq — hitting new, all-time intraday highs. A cooling of trade tensions between the U.S. and China is a big part of the market rally after the world’s two biggest economies agreed on a framework for a deal to avoid increased tariffs. A flurry of mergers and acquisitions across multiple industries and the expected 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this week further boosted Wall Street sentiment. We’re balancing these three bullish narratives against the fact that the S & P Short Range Oscillator finally moved firmly into overbought territory. Jim Cramer has been using the Oscillator for decades to help identify momentum swings in the market. In overbought markets, we tend to look for things to sell and pad our cash position. Earlier Monday , we trimmed Danaher . Retail earnings: JPMorgan’s department store and specialty softline retail analyst Matt Boss published his big third-quarter preview. Overall, Boss was upbeat on the category heading into earnings season. JPMorgan’s proprietary Chase Credit Card data showed total U.S. spending growth picked up sequentially, led by higher-income consumers. From a more micro perspective, Boss believes the group benefited from a strong start to August, driven by the Back-to-School season and early cold weather. Another factor working in the companies’ favor is conservative expectations. Last earnings season, many management teams offered more conservative guidance in anticipation of a bigger pullback in consumer spending. Given the Chase card data suggests a pickup in spending, it doesn’t sound like that slowdown materialized. But Boss isn’t purely top-down driven. He does the homework by visiting stores and meeting with management teams. He’s long been a supporter of off-price retailers, with TJX standing out as a favorite. Ahead of the quarter, Boss increased his price target on TJX by $1 to $150 and maintained his overweight buy rating. Boss’ recent fieldwork showed the stores had a lot of inventory from notable brands like Helly Hansen, Calvin Klein, BCGB, and Tommy Hilfiger. The treasure hunt experience is alive and well, with Boss pointing out that TJX store merchandise on average was 70% below the original price. These two points stand out because what matters most to us, as TJX shareholders for the Club, is its ability to source high-quality merchandise and sell it to customers at bargain prices. Based on Boss’ checks, the TJX thesis is still alive and well. For the quarter, Boss is above the Street consensus for both same-store sales growth and earnings per share. Up next: The biggest week of third-quarter earnings season is underway. After the closing bell, Nucor, Whirlpool, Amkor Technology, WM, Cadence Design Systems, and NXP Semiconductors are among the companies reporting their quarterly results. Corning , our newest portfolio name, reports before Tuesday’s open, along with UnitedHealth, Sherwin-Williams, SoFi, PayPal, United Parcel Service, Celestica, Carrier, D.R. Horton, VF Corp., and NextEra Energy. On the data side, the Conference Board releases its latest read on consumer confidence. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
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