Broad index-level selling comes knocking
(These are the market notes on today’s action by Mike Santoli, CNBC’s Senior Markets Commentator.) A fourth day of erratic action and failed rally attempts gave way to broader index-level selling, as fatigue in the semiconductor leadership met stressed action in financials and Bitcoin remained unable to shake off the flash correction of late last week. The S & P 500 surrendered another early upside try and dropped a bit more than 1% at its worst. The index has spent this entire week within Friday’s 3% range. At this point it’s fair to say that last Friday’s air pocket upended the clockwork rotational upward grind that prevailed for weeks beforehand, opening a window for wider swings and deferred profit-taking. Zooming out, it looks like a mere sideways range near all-time highs since mid-September, spending most of that time between 6600 and 6700, with the recent slippage taking it just about to its still-rising 50-day moving average. Big banks often trade lower after reporting earnings, though the Wall Street heavyweights were mostly boosted in recent days by their results. Not today, when regional lenders were under severe pressure as low-grade anxiety builds about the prospect of credit hiccups and perhaps some tightening in parts of the wholesale funding complex. Nothing critical as yet, but some reports describe the overnight funding markets feeling some heavier demand for cash reserves. Meantime, Jefferies shares were down another 10% on the firm’s investor day, unable to shake its connection to the First Brands bankruptcy . Taiwan Semi ‘s inability to hold gains after a stellar quarter and strong guidance is a sign of a possible short-term crest in the AI trade’s ability to go up every day on similar news flow. The ADRs went from a 2% early gain to a 2% drop, though they are still up 52% this year. A rest more than a retrenchment, at this point. I’ve been noting for more than a week the low-quality leadership in small-caps and the headlong momentum in several speculative areas ( quantum , drones , crypto, AI-adjacent energy upstarts). This culminated Wednesday in one of the heaviest short-squeeze days in months, which perhaps exhausted near-term buying power as those groups slide and the micro-cap ETF (IWC) is down 3.2%. Stocks down, oil down , Treasury yields down , dollar down with VIX up above 25 and gold refusing to surrender another day’s aggressive gain speak to a half-step back from risk. The government shutdown and China-U.S. trade volleys have not caused focused, dramatic market reactions but they frame the backdrop as one of more potential friction in the economy. The bull case for stocks has not been canceled, of course, given still-rising earnings, a Fed poised to trim rates, tax-relief goodies kicking in next year, AI-capex momentum and still-decent GDP-tracking indicators. Nearly everyone talking about playing a late-year ramp in stocks in recent weeks allowed for the prospect of some October downside volatility in the interim, and this is a fairly mild bout of it so far. We’re just days from some key profit reports that could change the focus back to tech-led growth in a hurry. Still, given elevated valuations, a lack of fresh official data, over-aggressive retail traders with their pedal to the metal and the tape’s prior rotational harmony disturbed, it’s tough to say that a few days of modest turbulence has been enough to recharge the relentless rally.
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