Buy Netflix as it’s primed to rally another 20%, Needham says
Strong trends in labor productivity could mean even more growth for Netflix over the coming months, according to Needham. The firm, which has a buy rating on the streaming giant’s stock, raised its price target to $1,500 from $1,126. That calls for 19.9% upside potential from Thursday’s close. “We link the notion of employee quality and culture to financial returns and argue that absolute returns, trends in returns and relative returns per employee are key quantitative metrics to determine whether a company employs high quality (ie, value creating) employees, or not,” analyst Laura Martin wrote in a Friday note. The analyst found that Netflix’s annual labor costs are more than its $17 billion used for content spending every year, meaning that “trends in labor productivity are a lead indicator of its share price performance,” she said. In fiscal 2024, Netflix had the highest revenue per full time equivalent (FTE) at $2.78 billion, Martin added, saying that the company was “materially more productive” than peers Apple, Meta Platforms and Alphabet and that it reported almost two times higher in average revenue per FTE than the nine large-cap companies in her coverage. On top of that, the analyst noted that Netflix’s free cash flow per FTE rose from negative to positive between fiscal years 2021 and 2024, seeing an increase of $506,095 per FTE in a four-year period. “We expect this trend to continue, as NFLX drives rev growth faster than FTE growth, aided by price increases for its [Subscription Video on Demand] tier and ad rev growth from its ad-driven tier,” Martin continued. Shares have far outpaced the S & P 500 in recent months, rising more than 49% in the last six and more than 40% year to date. The S & P 500, by comparison, has increased nearly 8% over the past six months and almost 7% in 2025. NFLX 6M mountain NFLX, 6-month Most analysts have joined Martin in taking an optimistic view of Netflix. In total, 34 out of 49 analysts covering the giant have a strong buy or buy rating, per LSEG data. By contrast, 15 have a hold rating. Shares of Netflix were marginally higher in premarket trading Friday.
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