Buy stocks if S&P 500 falls to this level: Evercore ISI’s Emanuel
A week of “maximum uncertainty” should deliver a key opportunity for investors, according to Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel. “We’re getting towards an inflection point where we would want to commit capital here,” the firm’s managing director said Monday on CNBC’s ” Fast Money .” Emanuel pinpoints next Monday, April 6, the day President Donald Trump lifts the pause on attacking Iran’s energy facilities , as a potential gamechanger for energy prices and Wall Street. “The bullish case for stocks lies solely on getting the oil price down,” said Emanuel, who sees another 30 to 45 days of prices at current levels doing lasting damage to the economy and markets. That’s not his base case, however. The market bull plans to deploy more cash to stocks if the S & P 500 drops to 6,150 — which would reflect another 3% loss from current levels. “It would almost be sort of irrational to say that it’s not a possibility,” said Emanuel. “It’s a buying opportunity in our view.” The drop would put the S & P 500 firmly in correction territory. Right now, the index is about 0.6% from correction territory. ‘Tariff tantrum’ parallels Emanuel compares the current backdrop to last year’s “tariff tantrum.” He predicts a policy breakthrough on Iran would spark a powerful rebound similar to Trump’s “tariff pivot.” Last March, Emanuel also gave “Fast Money” a deadline surrounding peak uncertainty. In a note that week, he told investors to resist tariff angst and accumulate stocks. By May, the S & P 500 recovered its losses . Now, Emanuel is looking to pounce on a popular market group that has been struggling: The artificial intelligence trade. “They have very visible earnings streams,” he said. “Of course, there will be those concerns around AI and capex. But these are the names that if the economy slows down, you’re still going to get the earnings at a price that’s very attractive.” Emanuel, who expects the S & P 500 to rebound to all-time highs, points to an encouraging pattern in the charts. “When we look at the Nasdaq 100 in general, the P/E [price-to-earnings] of that index is trading at a relative low versus the S & P 500 going back to the pandemic,” he said. “We think it’s time to dip a toe into large cap tech .” Emanuel has a 7,750 year-end target on the S & P 500, a 22% jump from Monday’s close. Disclaimer
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