China fourth-quarter growth slows to 4.5%, weakest in nearly three years as consumption misses forecasts

China’s economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in nearly three years in the fourth quarter as domestic demand softened, though full-year growth matched Beijing’s target despite growing trade frictions with the U.S. and a prolonged real estate slump.

Gross domestic product grew 4.5% in the October-to-December period, data from the National Statistics Bureau showed Monday. That marked a slowdown from 4.8% in the third quarter and was the weakest reading since the first quarter of 2023, when growth also came in at 4.5%.

Full-year economic output came in at 5%, meeting the official target of around 5%.

Separate December data showed domestic consumption weakened and the investment decline steepened, while manufacturing improved.

Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, grew 0.9% in December from a year earlier, missing economists’ forecast for 1.2% growth and slowing from 1.3% in the prior month.

Industrial output climbed 5.2% in December, topping expectations for a 5% growth and up from 4.8% in the previous month.

Fixed-asset investment, which includes real estate, contracted 3.8% last year, worse than economists’ forecast for a 3% drop in a Reuters poll.

The urban unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in December.

The world’s second-largest economy has shown resilience in 2025, largely helped by lower-than-expected tariff rates and exporters’ push to diversify away from the U.S., allowing its policymakers to hold off on launching large-scale stimulus.

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