China is drowning in soybeans. U.S. farmers are drowning in frustration
China’s imports of U.S. soybeans have shown little sign of rebounding as Beijing’s stockpiles swelled to their highest levels in years, undermining U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that a recent trade truce would spur major new Chinese purchases. China, the world’s largest consumer of soybeans, has built up a glut of supplies after months of aggressive stockpiling, which analysts said allowed Beijing to slow-walk its purchase agreement even as both sides touted improved relations. A U.S. Department of Agriculture report released last Friday showed only two Chinese purchases of American soybeans since the summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, totaling 332,000 metric tons from Oct. 2 through Nov. 12 — well short of the 12 million metric tons that the White House said China agreed to purchase by year-end. “Beijing’s promises to American presidents have historically had a short expiration date, and Xi’s promises to Trump about soybean purchases will likely be the same,” said Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at policy research house Hudson Institute. China will likely “slow-roll soybean purchases to bait the Trump administration into prolonged negotiations” to freeze competitive actions from the Trump administration,” Sobolik added. Beijing is likely to vary the quantity of soybean imports according to geopolitical temperature. Head of Commodities at BMI Sabrin Chowdbury The legumes have long been a political flashpoint in U.S.-China trade tensions, with Beijing squeezing American farmers earlier this year when it boycotted U.S. soybeans at the start of the new harvest season. The White House last month stated that Beijing also agreed, under a sweeping bilateral pact, to purchase 25 million tons annually over the next three years, although that would fall short of the 26.8 million tons China bought last year. But China has been conspicuously quiet about that commitment. Aside from suspending retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. agricultural imports, Beijing has not publicly confirmed those targets, and analysts tracking Chinese import flows say the country’s near-term appetite remains weak. Beijing’s stockpiling Chinese processors of raw soybeans, also known as crushers, pig farmers and feed producers have built up inventories that exceed typical levels, while state reserves have added further cushion. Stocks at Chinese ports reached a record 10.3 million tons as of Nov. 7, up 3.6 million tons from a year earlier, according to data from Sublime China Information cited by Reuters . Crushers held 7.5 million tons — also the highest since 2017. The buildup followed five consecutive months of record-high soybean arrivals through September. Imports remained elevated in October, rising 17.2% to 9.48 million tons last month, according to China’s official customs data. Total imports for the first ten months of the year reached 95.7 million tons, a 6.4% increase from the same period last year. Brazil has supplied nearly 80% of those soybean imports, according to estimates from grain exporter group Anec last month . Imports from Brazil between April and September rose 13% from a year earlier, according to Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING. “China buying a few U.S. soybean cargoes will not mean much for Brazil,” Turner said, as South American supplies are typically cheaper than U.S. shipments, even after China reduced the retaliatory tariffs. Earlier this month, China again increased its soybean purchases from Brazil as the South American nation lowered prices ahead of the tariff reduction on U.S. imports, Reuters reported, citing three unnamed traders, who said Chinese buyers booked 10 cargoes for December and another 10 for March through July. Little sign of big buying Industry participants said they see little evidence of a major buying program from China’s state grain importers, such as COFCO and Sinograin, which would likely handle the bulk of the promised purchases. “There’s very little indication that these state buyers are engaged in a program to purchase 12 mmt ahead of the end of this year, let alone 25 mmt more for calendar year 2026,” Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, wrote in a note on Nov. 11. “Thus far we see little evidence of it as the clock continues to tick.” Beijing’s signals have been mixed. It restored import licenses for three U.S. soybean exporters earlier this month, including CHS Inc ., a Minnesota-based company. At the country’s largest agricultural imports expo last week, Chen Chao, a director at China’s Ministry of Commerce, described agricultural trade as a cornerstone of the broader U.S.–China economic relationship. “With vast potential ahead, deeper agricultural cooperation will contribute positively to global food security and shared prosperity,” he said, according to state media reports . In another diplomatic gesture, top Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang met with a delegation of American agricultural groups earlier this month, during which he vowed to create a favorable environment for agricultural trade cooperation. But purchases remain erratic. As recently as last week, Bloomberg reported that China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans appeared to have stalled again . China was absent from the U.S. autumn harvest this year amid protracted trade friction with Washington, though Reuters reported in late October that COFCO had ordered three U.S. soybean cargoes ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. The slowdown has strained U.S. farmers financially, as China was typically their top export market, having sold $12.6 billion of the legume to Beijing in 2024. Trump has slammed the purchase pause as an “economically hostile” act . Soybeans as a bargaining chip “Beijing is likely to vary the quantity of soybean imports according to geopolitical temperature, increasing when relations are better and decreasing when worse,” said Sabrin Chowdbury, head of Commodities at BMI, noting that imports of the American crop will remain “a bargaining chip” for Beijing’s trade talks with Washington. Beijing’s use of soybeans as leverage in the wider trade dispute — squeezing American farmers who formed a key voting bloc for Trump and the Republican Party — is hardly new. During Trump’s first term, Beijing reduced imports of the crop in retaliation for American tariffs and export controls — a pressure that prompted the administration to negotiate a deal for Beijing to buy $200 billion worth of U.S. farm goods, including soybeans. Brazil is expected to produce another record harvest next year, which could further pressure U.S. farmers’ prices. But a deeper reliance on South America carries its own risks for China, including potentially higher costs, longer shipping distances, and greater exposure to weather volatility in Brazil and Argentina. For now, China appears focused on keeping costs low and supplies stable. For American farmers hoping that the latest trade truce would quickly reopen China’s market, the mountain of soybeans sitting in Chinese ports tells a different story.
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