Five races to watch on the day the 2026 midterm elections kick off

Tuesday is the first moment of truth for the 2026 midterm elections. It’s the day the first polls will close to kick off a seven-month stretch of primaries that will help shape who will win the House and Senate on Election Day, Nov. 3.

While Democrats are favored to win the House and Republicans seem likely to keep the Senate, much will depend on the results of the primaries leading up to the big day. Here are five early races taking place Tuesday that will indicate how the rest of the election could go:

Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican, is attempting to keep his seat in a heated primary against two challengers: State Attorney General Ken Paxton and Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt, who represents a Houston-area district.

Despite Senate Republicans and establishment donors pouring tens of millions into the race for Cornyn, most polls show Paxton as the frontrunner. His track record opposing President Joe Biden and backing President Donald Trump has made him a favorite of the MAGA crowd, with an endorsement from Turning Point USA, the influential group founded by Charlie Kirk.

Yet a Paxton victory in the primary means Republicans would likely need to sink additional millions into the state to win in November. Paxton is scandal plagued. He’s in the middle of an acrimonious divorce, was impeached by the Texas House over corruption allegations and was charged with securities fraud.

Trump hasn’t endorsed in the race. He had complimentary words for both Cornyn and Paxton when he visited Corpus Christi, Texas on Friday, saying they’re “both great people.” He also mentioned Hunt.

The more money Republicans need to spend defending Texas in the general, the less there will be for other battleground states.

Hunt is also painting himself as a more conservative choice than Cornyn. While Hunt is not expected to win, he could cause the primary to head into a May 26 runoff if no candidate gets a majority of the vote.

Democrats are hoping this will be the year they win a statewide race in Texas — but their odds of doing so could depend on who emerges victorious in the primary.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are in an increasingly nasty campaign. The two have similar stances on the issues, but vastly different styles.

Crockett, a civil rights lawyer, is known as a firebrand, with combative comebacks and fierce messaging. She is popular with Democratic voters who want their party to show more fight against the Trump administration, and she has appealed to both Black and progressive voters. Recent polling has shown each of them in the lead.

Talarico, a former school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, takes a far more measured approach, appealing to independents and moderate Republicans with a message of unity. His speeches sound like sermons and he mixes progressives values with Bible verses.

The winner of the primary could signal which campaign strategy will be adopted by the Democrats in 2028.

Incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw is fending off a challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth in a race that will test how well a sitting congressman with solid conservative credentials can fend off a challenger from the MAGA wing of the party.

Crenshaw is the only Republican House incumbent in the March 3rd primaries who doesn’t have Trump’s endorsement. While Crenshaw voted with Trump on all major issues, he split with Trump on things including backing aid for Ukraine and speaking out against the false claims that Trump won the 2020 election.

Toth has picked up endorsements from the House Freedom Caucus as well as Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. But Crenshaw has outraised and outspent Toth and has the backing of the official House GOP campaign arm.

In North Carolina’s 4th congressional district, incumbent Rep. Valerie Foushee is facing a primary challenge from Nida Allam, a county commissioner. Allam has criticized Foushee for not doing enough to push back against Trump’s agenda and for taking money in previous elections from the pro-Israel AIPAC.

Allam lost to Foushee in 2022, but the district has since been redrawn.

Foushee has support from major Democratic politicians and groups, including Gov. Roy Cooper, the Congressional Black Caucus and Congressional Progressive Caucus.

Allam is endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, as well as Leaders We Deserve, a group backed by progressive activist David Hogg supporting challengers to incumbent Democrats. She has also gotten donations from American Priorities, a counterweight to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

The race will also be an early test for the pro-AI regulation group Public Action First, which counts Anthropic among its donors. The group’s Democratic arm donated to Foushee.

Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales is enmeshed in a scandal after The San Antonio Express-News, Gonzales’ hometown newspaper, reported on a text message from an aide who said she had an extramarital affair with him and subsequently died by suicide.

The texts showed Gonzales pressured his staffer, Regina Santos-Aviles, for a “sexy pic.”

Gonzales faces several challengers, including Brandon Herrera, a Youtube personality who came close to beating him in 2024.

The results of the primary could lead to Gonzales deciding to resign from Congress — something he has so far resisted. Republicans can only lose one vote in the House if they want to pass legislation on a party-line vote. That means a departure from Gonzales would make it even more difficult for Speaker Mike Johnson to hold his fragile majority together.