Goldman Sachs sees further gains to come for ASML
ASML ‘s monopoly over one critical part of the artificial intelligence supply chain could see it more than double its own 2030 revenue expectations, according to Goldman Sachs. Demand for extreme ultraviolet radiation, or EUV, which is a niche but critical part of AI infrastructure, is set to intensify as the AI race continues at pace. EUV is like a powerful laser printer that etches minuscule designs onto silicon wafers that are used to make semiconductors. ASML, which has a market capitalization of $395 billion at time of writing, is the only company able make equipment to do this at scale and therefore underpins much of the AI supply chain. It plays a critical role in creating cost-effective advanced memory chips, according to a fresh research note by Goldman Sachs analysts. “As advanced AI use cases proliferate, smaller and more powerful chips will be required to support the processing and storage of complex AI workloads, which will require finer and more sophisticated printing of circuitry on semi chips,” they wrote. “Given ASML is the only provider of leading-edge lithography machines (which is a key and unavoidable step in the chip manufacturing process), we see it as uniquely critical in enabling the production of all AI chips (i.e., Logic, Memory and analog),” the analysts added. ASML-NL YTD line ASML shares year to date. In Goldman’s most bullish scenario, 104 EUV machines could be needed by 2030 thanks to AI, which would equate to a revenue uplift of 59% to the mid-point of ASML’s 2030 guidance. The Dutch chip equipment supplier previously stated that it is was working towards 90 units by 2025, per the note. “We see scope for continued healthy EUV order intake announcements, with strong advanced Logic and Memory demand driven by large AI deals and cyclical upturn in SP/PC demand coupled with evidence of EUV later share gains,” analysts said. Its most bullish scenario would set ASML up to have a larger impact than other European hardware players. Analysts project maximum revenue uplifts of 42% for Infineon , 44% for ASMI , and 65% for BESI , though the latter is from a much smaller starting point and therefore has more limited scale. Analysts also reckon ASML’s valuation is fairly conservative, relative to its structural outlook, given it’s “only slightly” higher with a premium at 50% compared to the five-year medium premium of the broader European tech sector which is at 43%. Their 12-month target price for the stock is 1,050 euros, with key risks including EUV delays, capex cyclicality, and unfavorable market share shifts. Still, ASML is the most valuable listed firm in Europe. Its shares are up 43.8% year-to-date, amid a recent rally. The company has had somewhat of a choppy year, with shares sinking after it posted an unclear outlook back in July. In October earnings, however, it looked to reassure investors and said that it expects 2026 total net sales to surpass this year’s, and maintained a positive sales outlook for 2025.
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