How Iran and Venezuela strikes transform the Trump-Xi trade talks

China’s opposition to the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran is stoking tensions between Beijing and Washington just weeks before a high-stakes meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

The Middle East offensive, which has killed China-friendly Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a slew of other Iranian officials, shows the U.S. doubling down hard on its willingness to eschew diplomacy and launch high-risk military operations in pursuit of its global goals. The war began less than two months after the U.S. attacked Venezuela to capture the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife, who are now both in custody in New York City.

The actions also show that, even as a tumultuous trade war between the U.S. and China has settled into an uneasy detente, the Trump administration is willing to rock the boat in countries where Beijing exerts significant influence.

The attacks aren’t likely to halt or compromise diplomacy between the two superpowers. But they will set the “mood music” for Trump’s upcoming summit with Xi in China, said Tim Keeler, partner and co-head of international trade at Mayer Brown.

The display of speed and force in the Maduro raid was “nothing short of stunning” and served as a reminder to China of U.S. military capabilities, Keeler said in a phone interview.

If the Iran incursion shapes up similarly to Venezuela, “then it could end up being a significant change in the nature of the background music for the meeting,” he said.

That could affect both the talks themselves and any agreements that come out of them, experts say. And while some think the U.S. strikes may give Trump a slight boost with Xi, they also note the advantage could flip to China depending how the days-old war evolves.

Trump is expected to travel to China from March 31 to April 2. Beforehand, top U.S. and Chinese trade officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, are expected to meet in Paris to discuss tariffs and possible deals on U.S. soybeans and Boeing aircraft, Bloomberg reported this week.

The U.S. and Israel started bombarding Iran with air strikes on Saturday, with Trump initially identifying regime change in Tehran as a key goal.

In the days since, the administration’s explanations for both the timing and broader purpose of the strikes have morphed. Officials eventually coalesced around a four-pronged justification for the war: to destroy Iran’s missile program, cripple its navy, prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons and ensure it can no longer support fighters beyond its borders.

Markets have churned in response to the fighting, which has massively disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial energy corridor.

China, the world’s largest customer for Iranian oil exports, has come out against the war and called for an immediate ceasefire.

“The Strait of Hormuz and its adjacent waters are an important international trade route for goods and energy. To keep the region secure and stable serves the common interests of the international community,” Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the China’s embassy in Washington, told CNBC in a statement Thursday.

“China urges relevant parties to immediately stop military operations, avoid further escalation of the tense situation and prevent regional turmoil from causing greater damage to global economic growth,” Liu said.

International oil prices, which were down from their recent highs, have surged back up due to supply disruptions, creating visible ripples in the global economy including a sudden jump in U.S. gas prices.

But China and other Asian economies, which receive most of the crude shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, could face the most exposure.

Bessent suggested Wednesday on CNBC that the developments in Venezuela and Iran are poised to hurt Beijing more.

“China is very vulnerable on the energy side,” he told “Squawk Box,” noting that the Asian economy had been “paying a big discount.”

“That’s obviously on hold right now, and then we’ll go from there,” Bessent said.

Some analysts say the war could bolster Trump’s position — for now, at least — as China’s interest in maintaining its dialogue with the U.S. outweighs its growing concerns about U.S. aggression.

“In the immediate term, the optics arguably favour Trump,” Jack Lee, an analyst at China Macro Group, told CNBC in an email.

“A U.S. administration willing to strike, and to absorb blowback, can look like it is arriving ‘from a position of strength,’ which may inject a degree of caution into Beijing,” he said.

Lee noted that China’s tone when responding to the U.S. strikes has been “unusually” soft, especially when compared to its more full-throated condemnation of the Maduro raid.

Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, agreed that despite growing risks and uncertainties, the war likely won’t derail the Trump-Xi meeting.

Instead, it may become a part of the negotiations, she said: “This is far more important to China compared to the Venezuela case. China is currently expanding its investments in the Middle East, so it needs to consider the potential spillover effects.”

David Meale, China practice head at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told CNBC the U.S. hasn’t necessarily gained leverage with Iran, because there’s no “obvious outcome with China that it can achieve based on these other developments.”

The war may nevertheless shape China’s response, Meale added, by increasing Beijing’s incentive to “engage in ways that will set expectations for maintaining stability in bilateral ties.”

Experts have stressed that the Iran war is still in its infancy, and that dynamics could shift wildly between now and the date of Trump’s overseas trip.

“Three weeks is a long time,” Keeler said.

— CNBC’s Eamon Javers contributed to this report.