How we navigated the Iran war-driven surge in oil that slammed stocks
The Iran war-driven spike in oil prices crushed stocks last week, culminating in the S & P 500 ‘s first three-week losing streak in roughly a year. There was little place to hide, with nine of the 11 S & P 500 sector indexes lower for the week. Not surprisingly, energy and utilities were winners. Brent crude, the international benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate crude, the American standard, jumped over 11% and 8%, respectively, over the past five trading sessions. In fact, on Thursday, Brent settled above $100 for the first time since 2022. Both Brent and WTI surged above $119 briefly on Monday before retreating and then grinding higher once again. For the week, the S & P 500 fell 1.6%. Jim Cramer argues that as long as Iran blocks oil tankers or threatens to attack them in the Strait of Hormuz, the war will persist — and with it, more volatility. After tracking Middle East developments all week, here is how we navigated the market — plus, two other themes that impacted our portfolio. How we played it Jim advised members to sit on their hands for most of the week as the conflict in the Mideast continued and headlines sent oil all over the place. He warned against trying to get completely out of the stock market in times of trouble. Knowing when to get back in is impossible and carries the risk of missing out on the rally that is sure to happen when the war is over. “Believe me, you’ll be kicking yourself if you sell everything and then you have to watch this market rebound without you,” he said during “Mad Money” on Thursday. As the week went on, Jim said it was time to buy as our trusted S & P Short Range Oscillator flashed oversold. We added to our Procter & Gamble position on Wednesday. The session after that, we put out a shopping list of five stocks to buy because much of the portfolio was restricted. We always want to let members know what we’re thinking, even if our hands are tied. On Friday, once we were able to pounce, we nibbled on some Alphabet shares. Looking ahead, we believe it’s possible the Oscillator could reach minus-10%, which historically has been a great time to buy. The threshold for oversold begins at minus-4%. Stagflation The recent rise in oil prices has clouded the outlook for inflation, relegating a pair of usually crucial economic reports out this week — the consumer price index for February and the personal consumption expenditures price index for January – to afterthought status as both were before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. Inflation will likely tick up in the coming months, and now investors are worried about stagflation – higher prices with little economic growth. Some on Wall Street are pointing back to the 1970s stagflation period as a cautionary tale. Back then, the S & P 500 plunged over 40% in a year as a recession occurred alongside the OPEC oil crisis. These concerns have dampened expectations for more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. In fact, the market is no longer favoring a 25-basis-point cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool on Friday. Cybersecurity CrowdStrike was a top performer in the portfolio, advancing 3% for the week. We found even more reason to back the cybersecurity stock as the Iran war raised the probability of attacks on digital systems. “The ramp up in cyber terrorism is extraordinary, according to CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz,” Jim said during Thursday’s Morning Meeting . In a text message to Jim, Kurtz said, “You will see a lot more companies get targeted that are related to the conflict in Iran. And, while the smoke screen of the war is going on, China is ramping up their activities. They are keenly interested in what’s going on with the war.” Kurtz’s remarks came a day after medtech firm Stryker reported an apparent Iran-linked cyberattack . The Club put out an analysis that outlines three reasons CrowdStrike is the kind of stock to buy during the Iran war. We have a buy-equivalent 1 rating on shares and a price target of $500. We also own peer Palo Alto Networks . We have a $200 price target and a 3 rating, meaning we would Palo Alto sell into strength. Jim still thinks highly of Palo Alto, but wants to consolidate the portfolio’s cyber exposure around just one name — and that name is CrowdStrike. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
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