Jobs data muddies the picture for a December rate cut, Nvidia fizzles
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets : There was an ugly reversal in the market Thursday. Stocks soared for most of the morning in reaction to Nvidia ‘s strong quarter, bullish outlook on AI spending, and pushback that customers weren’t generating a sufficient return on their investment. Nvidia shares climbed as high as $196 on Thursday — a roughly 5% gain — and its gravitational pull helped lift other technology and AI-adjacent industrial stocks. The market’s gains pushed the S & P 500 into positive territory for the week. However, around 11 a.m. ET, the market began to fall rapidly, with technology and industrial names leading the decline. Nvidia gave up all of its gains and dropped 2%. Bitcoin hit its lowest level since late April. Notable defensive stocks like consumer staples held onto their gains, though. That resilience reinforces our decision to diversify further, which we did earlier this week , by adding Procter & Gamble to the portfolio. The S & P 500’s decline has pushed the index back toward the lows of its recent downturn, marking a roughly 5% pullback from its high. It remains to be seen whether Thursday’s reversal is a sign of investors continuing to retreat from risk assets or simply a retest of the recent downdraft. But Nvidia’s earnings report gave zero indication of a slowdown in demand for AI compute. Interest rate cut: Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting in December continue to fluctuate. One month ago, a rate cut seemed like a sure thing with a 98.8% probability, according to the CME FedWatch Tool . But the odds dropped to about 50% a week ago after a slew of hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve members. On Wednesday, the odds of a cut plummeted to 30% after the release of the October Fed minutes, which showed that the central bank was hesitant to lower rates again this year. But after the long-delayed September jobs data finally came out Thursday, the probability of a 25-basis-point reduction jumped to 40%. Although the economy added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double the forecasted figure, the unemployment rate ticked higher. The Fed is in a bind, trying to balance a softening labor market against the risk that a rate cut could reignite inflation. Up next: Gap, Ross Stores , Intuit , and Veeva Systems report after the closing bell. BJ’s Wholesale Club will post results Friday morning. On the economic data side, tomorrow we’ll get November’s S & P Global Flash PMI for Manufacturing and Services, along with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
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