Meta’s spending outlook is sending the stock lower. Here’s what analysts had to say
Better-than-expected results from Meta Platforms were being overshadowed by worries around the company’s massive artificial intelligence spending plans. The tech giant earned an adjusted $7.25 per share on $51.24 billion in revenue during the third quarter. That exceeds the $6.69 per share and revenue of $49.41 billion that analysts polled by LSEG had penciled in. Still, shares down nearly 9% lower after the company hiked its 2025 capital expenditures outlook as it invests more money into AI. It now expects to spend between $70 billion and $72 billion, up from a prior guidance of $66 billion to $72 billion. This raised concern among investors and analysts covering the stock. Oppenheimer and Benchmark downgraded Meta to perform and hold, respectively. “Significant investment in Superintelligence despite unknown revenue opportunity mirrors 2021/2022 Metaverse spending,” wrote Oppenheimer. Several other Wall Street shops lowered their price targets on shares. Here’s what some analysts had to say: Oppenheimer: downgrades to perform from outperform The investment firm also removed its prior $696 price target. “Implied 4Q opex/capex both 7% ahead of Street and guiding FY26 capex dollar growth ‘notably larger than 2025’ and expenses ‘significantly faster’ than 2025’s +23%, both ahead of Street. … Moreover, we believe investors will struggle to rationalize the PE until there is visibility into 2027, as aggressive revenue growth offset by high spending. This compares to GOOG with predictable earnings at a reasonable PE. Meanwhile, both companies trading at same PE (21x 2027E) and Search could outgrow META at some point in 2026.” Benchmark: downgrades to hold from buy “We are downgrading META shares to Hold from Buy and see the shares rangebound at best until a sensible return case can be made for thus far runaway capex. … META is certainly pursuing AI investments outside ads, including its V-JEPA 2 model/robotics and what we understand to be future Llama model validation of vertical AI models via largescale simulations, training, etc. However, returns are less certain against fresh, comparably capitalized competition including OpenAI, Google, Tesla, other frontier AI labs.” Barclays: keeps overweight rating, cuts target to $770 from $810 The bank’s target represents upside of just 2%. “META’s solid results were overshadowed by the increased investments, notably for MSL (the new AI team) which management noted is an uptick from just 90 days ago. While not surprising and likely to produce solid returns LT, this wipes out most of the expected OI growth in ’26 and nearly all the FCF.” Bank of America: reiterates buy rating, cuts target to $810 from $900 Bank of America’s new price target implies an upside of 8% ahead. “We expect Meta stock to be controversial given a limited EPS growth outlook and y/y FCF pressure in 2026. However, we see Meta in a position of strength with massive user network and opportunity to integration compelling AI products (including content creation tools) over the next two years. We believe the bad news on expenses is now mostly ‘in’ the stock, while product catalysts, including a new LLM and content creation tools, can drive upside engagement and revenue in 2026. Also, while FCF will likely decline in 2026, at the $695 AH price Meta is valued at 10.5x 2027E EBTIDA, and 19x 2027 core business EPS, which we think can help support the stock.” Goldman Sachs: keeps buy rating, lowers target to $815 from $870 Analyst Eric Sheridan’s target implies about 8% upside from Wednesday’s close. “We remain focused on increased levels of visibility into rates of investment and return profile on such investments as critical to a better understanding of the compounded earnings potential exiting 2025. Even in the light of these sustained growth investments, we continue to frame META as well-positioned against several long-term secular growth themes and are encouraged by the positive momentum across key product initiatives incl. Reels, click-to-messaging Ads and AI including Advantage+ adoption of advertising budgets.” Morgan Stanley: maintains overweight rating, trims target to $820 from $850 The bank’s forecast corresponds to upside of around 9%. “META’s 4Q revenue guide was disappointing (top end 1% below us), but the ad miss wasn’t as large as we acknowledge we mis-modeled quarterly hardware sales that in aggregate probably added ~1% to our 4Q estimates. … To be clear, we don’t think anything is broken with META’s core platform improvements, believe the pipeline for improvements remains long… and key fundamentals remain very strong (time spent accelerating on Facebook and Instagram, U.S. time spent on Facebook and Instagram growing double digits). The challenge in the near term is revisions and estimates heading lower as higher opex causes us to lower our ’26/’27 EPS by 5%/4%. META’s multiple may also be pressured/capped due to rising investment in the super intelligence team (the largest driver of the y/y capex increase in ’26)… which causes more uncertainty around ROIC.” Citi: reiterates buy rating, lowers target to $850 from $915 The bank’s target calls for 13% upside going forward. “The debate exiting 3Q25 results is on the magnitude of Meta’s 2026 CapEx and OpEx investments as it invests to support its NT/MT/LT product initiatives. This as 4Q25 guidance came in below expectations despite 3Q’s better-than-expected results whereby total revenue rose +25% Y/Y ex-FX. While we acknowledge the magnitude of investments are greater than most expected and we materially raise our CapEx and OpEx projections — we now project ’26 CapEx to reach ~$111B — we also believe Meta has a proven investment track-record of investments that have resulted in accelerating engagement and advertising growth. And while we look for newer FMs to emerge in ’26, we believe there are multiple product/monetization catalysts ahead (GEM, Andromeda, Business AI, Meta AI, and Threads, among others) that can deliver continued growth.”
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