Netflix earnings are coming Thursday. Here’s what top analysts expect
Netflix is slated to release its second-quarter results Thursday after market close, and analysts are expecting another blockbuster. Analysts surveyed by LSEG anticipate that the streaming giant will post earnings of $7.08 per share and $11.066 billion in revenue. Those results would signify earnings growth of 45% year over year as well as a 15.8% jump in revenue when compared to the prior-year period. The anticipated gains come after the streamer posted a major earnings beat for the first quarter of the year, where it saw revenue rise 13%. That was due to the company increasing pricing for its plans toward the end of January. NFLX 6M mountain NFLX, 6-month Since the start of the year, Netflix shares have surged, ratcheting up nearly 42% year to date and about 50% in the past six months. That compares to the S & P 500’s year-to-date gains of 6% and the broad index’s 5% jump over the past six months. Heading into earnings, much of Wall Street is still bullish. According to LSEG data, 34 out of 49 analysts covering Netflix have rated it a strong buy or buy, while the remaining 15 have given it a hold rating. Here’s what some of the analysts are saying prior to the results. Wedbush Securities: Outperform rating and $1,400 price target Analyst Alicia Reese’s target signals around 11% upside from Tuesday’s close. “We believe that Netflix is well-positioned to accelerate ad tier revenue contribution over the next several years by adding and improving live events, enhancing its advertising solutions and targeting capabilities, expanding its ad partnerships, and broadening its content strategy. While massive subscriber growth was the primary driver in 2024, we expect price increases to drive revenue growth in 2025, and the ad tier to drive revenue higher in 2026. As Netflix expands, its contribution margin can massively exceed our estimates, driving outsized free cash flow.” Bank of America: Buy rating and $1,490 price target Analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich’s target implies more than 18% upside from Tuesday’s closing level. “Netflix has been a top performer in our coverage (up ~42% YTD) driven by: sustained earnings momentum, positive subscriber trends and defensiveness related to tariffs. We continue to view Netflix as well positioned given the company’s unmatched scale in streaming, further runway for subscriber growth, significant opportunities in advertising and sports/live and continued earnings and FCF growth.” BMO Capital Markets: Outperform rating and $1,425 price target Analyst Brian Pitz’s target calls for around 13% upside. “Raising 2Q25E and 2H25E revenue and OpInc estimates reflecting record-breaking Squid Game 3 viewership data, FX, and an attractive content slate in 2H25E. Netflix continues to trade above its forward averages, though AI tailwinds are beginning to proliferate, with multi-year benefits ahead given ‘hundreds of billions’ of user interactions globally. AI tools should prove complementary to current CGI/VFX products, enhancing production workflows, expanding Creator capabilities, and driving user engagement.” Jefferies: Buy rating and $1,400 price target Analyst James Heaney’s target implies around 11% upside. “With the stock up 42% YTD and trading near 5YR highs, investor sentiment has turned more cautious ahead of the Q2 print. However, we continue to see a favorable set-up over the next 12mos, as recent US price hikes, a strengthening 2H content slate, and improving ads monetization sustain mid-teens rev growth in 2H25 and FY26. We believe an increase in the FY25 op. margin guide to 30%+ could act as an additional positive catalyst for the stock.” Evercore ISI: Outperform rating and $1,350 price target Analyst Mark Mahaney’s target reflects more than 7% upside. “We view NFLX as one of the least risky stocks this quarter. We view the Street’s Q2 Revenue, Operating Income and EPS estimates as reasonable. While the Street’s sequential revenue growth of +5% is ahead of typical seasonality (flat to +2% Q/Q over the past three years), we note that NFLX should benefit from a significant sequential FX tailwind as well as from full quarter impacts of recent price increases in select markets. Further, NFLX has a very consistent recent track record of exceeding its Revenue and Operating Income guidance.” Loop Capital: Hold rating and $1,150 price target Analyst Alan Gould’s target suggests almost 9% downside. “We remain quite bullish on Netflix the company, but remain neutral on the stock due to valuation with the stock trading at almost 50x earnings. … NFLX deserves a premium multiple, but we do not agree with the bull case that NFLX deserves the same multiple as a great consumer company such as Costco. NFLX’s has won the streaming wars, but its business continues to evolve which we believe provides it with less earnings durability; it has shown more historic volatility.”
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