No near-term lifeline from China for Nvidia’s H20 chips
Nvidia investors should expect a slow, methodical China recovery and not a near-term sales spike. Earlier this month, the company announced plans to resume sales of H20 chips to China . The less-advanced semiconductors, built on its Hopper architecture, are designed for artificial intelligence computing, but remain compliant with U.S. export restrictions to China. However, a report in The Information suggested Nvidia is facing production delays in restarting H20 shipments to China. The report flags logistical setbacks, but Nvidia has already outlined a similiar timeline , indicating that revenue from these chips will likely be negligible until at least the fourth quarter. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, and Rosenblatt cite a mix of hurdles: export licenses are still pending, previous orders were canceled , and Nvidia has little finished inventory. The company’s supply chain also takes nine months to ramp. “We would keep near-term expectations in check, given licenses have not yet been issued, and we see questions around available supply of H20 and whether RTX chips (formerly B30/B40) will also be included, but it is a significant positive for 2026 for all AI stocks, including our Top Pick NVDA,” Morgan Stanley analyst Charlie Chan wrote in a research note Sunday. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia shares year to date Nvidia shares have risen 24% year to date, with a nearly 6% gain so far this month. To propel future gains, investor attention is likely to continue shifting toward Nvidia’s next-gen Blackwell-based RTX chips, potentially accelerating a move away from the older Hopper line. For now, the path to recovery in China is more about rebuilding momentum than generating near-term upside – with the potential for a more material revenue impact starting next year.
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