Outlook for March 16-20, 2026
Following yet another week spoiled by surging oil prices, investors will be anxiously awaiting relief as the war against Iran by the U.S. and Israel faces a third week. The three major averages suffered a losing week, dropping at least 1% in the period as oil saw even more gains on Friday. Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate were another roughly 3% higher on the day, pushing their week-to-date advances to more than 11% and more than 8%, respectively. Stocks, meanwhile, set new 2026 lows this week . “The conflict in the Middle East and related headlines are still the major source of fluctuations in markets,” said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “The duration of the closure in the Strait of Hormuz is the key factor and markets will be watching for progress.” Traffic in the key Strait of Hormuz passageway – through which about 20% of the world’s petroleum consumption passed before the war – has effectively come to a halt in the wake of the war breaking out. This might only continue, as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has said that it should remain closed as a ” tool to pressure the enemy .” Complicating matters further, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC on Thursday that the U.S. Navy is ” not ready ” to escort tankers through the Strait. Wright did say, however, that the Navy will likely be able to escort them by the end of the month. Brent futures this week settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022. WTI futures went as high as $119.48 in overnight trading at the beginning of the week but then retreated after President Donald Trump signaled that the war would end soon . @CL.1 @LCO.1 5D mountain WTI vs. Brent, 5-day Still, Samana believes that investors should be optimistic, focusing instead on the prospect of solid economic growth and corporate earnings in the future. He anticipates that WTI will eventually head back down to $65 to $75 a barrel. “We would continue to try and look through those near-term headlines, as we still see the conflict/closure as lasting weeks/months and not changing the forward outlook meaningfully,” he said. Nvidia to the rescue? Even if the Iran war persists through next week, potentially sending oil prices higher and weighing on investor sentiment by extension, Nvidia may offer some support to the broader market. The artificial intelligence company’s GTC conference is set to take place next week from March 16 to 19, and a number of Wall Street analysts are reiterating their bullish stances on the chipmaker in the leadup to the event. Rothschild & Co. Redburn analyst Timm Schulze-Melander – who has a buy rating on the name – said that unless oil prices reach $150 a barrel and “sucks the air out of the room,” Nvidia will be at the forefront of investors’ minds next week. “Nvidia is moving aggressively to dominate AI inference. OpenClaw and Nvidia’s NemoClaw mark the first major step into consumer-scale agentic AI,” he wrote in a recent note. “At next week’s GTC keynote, we expect Nvidia to reveal more of its strategy for dominance of AI inference. While the market obsesses over chips, the real story is Nvidia’s ‘five-layer stack’ designed to squeeze hyperscaler margins and lock-in the generation of agentic AI.” The conference comes at a crucial time for the AI industry. As major tech companies ramp up their spending for their AI build-out plans , uncertainty about return on investment remains a cloud that has hung over the market in recent months . Meanwhile, concerns about the technology disrupting various industries such as software and trucking have hit other areas of the market. Awaiting the Fed The second Federal Reserve policy meeting of the new year will be taking place next week. The chances of a rate cut are virtually zero, but traders will look for any clues on the when the central bank may cut rates this year. “I wouldn’t expect much,” said Will McGough, chief investment officer at Prime Capital Financial. He noted the central bank could address the geopolitical conflict as it relates to inflation as a way to reinforce a data-dependent stance. “They’re kind of between their two mandates – they kind of got them going different directions right now,” he continued. “The labor market is a little weakish, which should suggest a cut. Inflation is a little stubborn – probably going higher – which suggests a raise. So, those two net-net all set to: do nothing.” Traders have since toned down their expectations for the year amid stagflation fears , pricing in only a December cut . Week ahead calendar All times ET. March 16-19: Nvidia GTC Monday, March 16 8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (March) 9:15 a.m. Capacity Utilization (February) 9:15 a.m. Industrial Production (February) 10:00 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (March) Earnings: Dollar Tree Tuesday, March 17 10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales (February) Wednesday, March 18 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (PPI) (February) 10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (January) 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (January) 2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting with Economic Projections 2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound Earnings: Micron Technology , Jabil , General Mills Thursday, March 19 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (03/14) 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed Index (March) 10:00 a.m. New Home Sales (January) 10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories (January) Earnings: FedEx , Darden Restaurants Friday, March 20 Markets shift and headlines fade, but the core principles of building long-term wealth remain constant. 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