Outlook for Oct. 20-24, 2025
Wall Street gets more information on corporate America next week, with third-quarter earnings shifting into high gear. There’s also important inflation data coming. The earnings season is off to a strong start, with financials topping expectations thanks to the likelihood of lower interest rates and greater merger and acquisition activity. S & P 500 earnings are expected to expand by 8.4% compared with the same quarter a year ago, according to FactSet data. But, given that earnings typically exceed expectations, FactSet senior analyst John Butters said it’s likely the broader index will report earnings growth above 13% for the fourth straight quarter. Investors will pay greater attention to management earnings calls than usual, given signs of weakness in the labor market — possibly owing to artificial intelligence — coupled with an ongoing data blackout from the government shutdown has traders turning elsewhere for clues. “We’re definitely looking for comments on head count, AI deployments, what part of the business potentially could be enhanced, what’s happening with any disruption that they see,” said Eric Clark, chief investment officer at Accuvest Global Advisors. “You just want some trends about the earnings trajectory.” Strong results could soothe some investors’ recent fears. This week, the S & P 500 has been marked by sharp reversals, as an AI rally helped offset concerns of potential systemic credit risk. Despite the swings, on Friday all three major averages posted winning weeks. October rate cut With the government shutdown continuing, investors are expecting one piece of major data next week: The September consumer price index set for release Friday. Regardless of what the report shows, investors are almost unanimous in anticipating another quarter percentage point rate cut at the Fed’s Oct. 28-29 meeting, given that the Fed has signaled that it may soon end its quantitative tightening campaign. The CPI report will have to come in markedly hot to dent the market’s current interest rate outlook. Yet the upcoming report could be difficult for markets to absorb, as it’s likely to show inflation remains elevated. Headline inflation is expected to rise to 3.1%, up from 2.9%, on a year-over-year basis, according to FactSet. Monthly inflation is expected to have ticked down to 0.39% from 0.40%. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have held steady at 0.30% and 3.1% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively. “We’re in a little tricky part of the next three or four months, because we’re starting to see inflation potentially kind of curl up just a little,” Clark at Accuvest said. “We’re not expecting anything meaningful.” Indeed, he remains bullish on the market, saying the S & P 500 is likely to rise to 7,200 by the end of the year. He expects any dips next week can be bought heading into year end. Elsewhere, trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue ahead of planned talks at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting for 2025 in South Korea on Oct. 31-Nov.1. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Oct. 20 Earnings: Steel Dynamics Tuesday, Oct. 21 Earnings: EQT , Capital One Financial , Texas Instruments , Netflix , Philip Morris International , Nasdaq , Coca-Cola , Halliburton , PulteGroup , 3M , General Motors , Equifax , Elevance Health , Danaher , RTX , Northrop Grumman , Lockheed Martin , GE Aerospace , Quest Diagnostics , Intuitive Surgical Wednesday, Oct. 22 Earnings: O’Reilly Automotive , International Business Machines , Las Vegas Sands , Lam Research , Kinder Morgan , United Rentals , Tesla , Raymond James Financial , Packaging Corporation of America , FirstEnergy , CME Group , Boston Scientific , Thermo Fisher Scientific , Hilton Worldwide Holdings , AT & T , GE Vernova Thursday, Oct. 23 Earnings: Baker Hughes , Newmont , Ford Motor , Digital Realty Trust , Deckers Outdoor , Intel , Norfolk Southern , Healthpeak Properties , Union Pacific , T-Mobile US , Valero Energy , Hasbro , Honeywell International , Tractor Supply , PG & E , Freeport-McMoRan , Blackstone , Southwest Airlines Friday, Oct. 24 8:30 a.m. ET Consumer Price Index Earnings: General Dynamics , Procter & Gamble
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