RBC hikes year-end S&P 500 target, but sees ‘choppy’ action after big rally
RBC Capital Markets believes that stronger-than-expected corporate profits will keep the the S & P 500 higher through the end of the year than previously forecast. In a Monday note, RBC head of U.S. equity strategy Lori Calvasina lifted her year-end forecast for the S & P 500 to 6,350 from 6,250. Calvasina’s updated level is still about 4% below where the benchmark stock index is currently trading. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD chart Calvasina attributed the higher target mainly to her raising her full-year 2025 earnings forecast to $269 from $258. But despite the heightened optimism, the strategist wrote that she is still cautious when looking ahead for the year. “Although we are nudging our 2025 price target up a little, and articulating one for 2H26 that anticipates a move higher in the S & P 500 over the next 12-15 months, we do remain on guard for choppy conditions in U.S. equities between now and year-end 2025,” she added. “Our main concerns have been poor seasonal patterns in September and October in recent years as well as stalling valuations in the S & P 500, top 10 market cap names and Nasdaq-100 which have struggled of late to break through their previous peaks.” Calvasina issued an S & P 500 price target of some 7,100 for the second half of 2026. Meanwhile, a “sudden drop” in net bullishness last month in polls by the American Association of Individual Investors has recently proven a leading indicator of short-term stock market declines, the strategist wrote. Calvasina also highlighted some signs of fatigue among retail investors, who have provided enormous support to equities this year. The strategist added that looming, potential headwinds could also rattle equities from their current all-time highs. “We are also concerned that the U.S. equity market is priced for perfection at a time when uncertainty about the fundamental backdrop is percolating from a few angles,” Calvasina wrote. “S & P 500 company commentary on earnings calls during the last reporting season has kept us in the camp that the real test from tariffs from a U.S. corporate profitability, inflation/cost pressure and demand perspective is coming up in 3Q/4Q, and questions about the health of the labor market have been sparked by recent government and private data releases.” ( Learn the best 2026 strategies from inside the NYSE with Josh Brown and others at CNBC PRO Live. Tickets and info here . )
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