Rotation and tech momentum lift S&P 500
(These are the market notes on today’s action by Mike Santoli, CNBC’s Senior Markets Commentator. See today’s video update from Mike above.) In my weekend column , I cited the recent run of partnerships in the semiconductor and data-center realm as “signaling to investors the danger of calling the top in AI enthusiasm.” On cue, Nvidia and OpenAI unveiled what they said is a $100 billion investment in AI capacity, sending Nvidia and related stocks flying and more than offsetting the fatigue evident in the broader market. Entering the week with the S & P 500 at a record high and moderately overbought, in what is statistically the weakest week of the calendar, the market’s rotational alacrity and the brute force of megacap-tech momentum were enough to lift the index nearly half a percent even with a majority of stocks pulling back. Apple keeps sprinting ahead, up another 4% Monday, with the better-than-expected uptake of new iPhone models the spark, and the excuse for the analyst herd to push the stock anew. But this is also about the muscle memory of laggard Mag 7 names coming to life after a dormant stretch and generating a catch-up chase. Apple is merely trying to follow the Alphabet track here. Gold keeps chugging higher, thriving in a risk-on market with very little macro stress in evidence, suggesting it has become another liquidity beneficiary, momentum play and all-purpose portfolio adornment as opposed to disaster insurance or magic diversifier. Even relative to its own sturdy trend, it’s getting a bit extended, now 9% above its 50-day moving average. Was 13% above before the springtime pullback. With many policy questions settled (tariffs sort of set, Fed on a rate-trimming path, tax bill passed) and very little genuine concern about an end to the economic expansion right now, so much of the market-handicapping exercise is about positioning: How exposed is the big money and how much headroom is there before dangerous extremes are breached? The professional investor cohort is involved but not quite all in, by most measures. The sentiment flows are piping hot and could be sending an alert to expect some cooldown. But the distance from here to unhinged-bubble territory (in valuation, sheer price momentum, public frenzy, IPOs) is arguably great enough to insulate the tape from serious danger for a bit. Still, the popularity of saying “No bubble yet, enjoy it while it lasts” is something to take note of, in itself. One thing to watch if a more disorderly, accelerating bull phase is to come would be “stocks up, volatility up” action. This was the late-’90s routine. Currently, the broad S & P 500 is pretty well-behaved. And while VIX had a bit of a bid today, approaching 16, in part on the post-weekend re-inflation effect, it’s not yet flashing an alarm.
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