S&P 500 retests Friday’s low
(These are the market notes on today’s action by Mike Santoli, CNBC’s Senior Markets Commentator. See today’s video update from Mike above.) A heavy start precedes a sprightly rebound , as the S & P 500 executed a nearly precise retest of Friday’s low (6555 Tuesday vs 6551 Friday) before tireless tactical buyers took control. The almost-trite mechanics of this bounce work against the idea that the market has mostly been twitching in tune with the back-and-forth trade-policy threats between the U.S. and China. Yes, the re-escalation of hostile rhetoric Friday was the proximate excuse for the market’s uncommonly calm ascent to crack. But it’s also about a market caught far out on the risk curve when this macro intrusion struck. The latest leg of the rally has been carried by a gusher of capital into the AI infrastructure buildout, a collective confidence that the Fed will cut rates into a still-steady economy poised to accelerate into 2026 and an urgency to position for the fourth-quarter performance-chasing ramp that Wall Street assumes it’s entitled to every year. All plausible premises, but in the process the market priced out complicating elements such as a not-yet-settled tariff regime and government shutdown possibly adding pressure to a decelerating consumer economy. The so-far-modest gut check has essentially taken the S & P 500 to a near-touch of its 50-day moving average after an unusually long stretch holding above it. While the best-case outcome is to find support here, the market typically will have more to prove after breaking a low-volatility grind-up phase. So far this week, the action has taken place entirely within Friday’s 200-point trading range and the underlying trend is at this point under no threat. The low-quality, speculative nature of the recent rally leadership is arguably both a destabilizing force and one that could simply persist in frustrating bears based solely on retail-trader and trend-follower aggression. Quantum-computing , drone-tech , rare-minerals and SPACs have been preposterously strong for a while. A lack of here-and-now fundamentals make for the best kind of speculative vehicles, subject strictly to herd psychology, flows, short squeezes and emotion. Gold and silver —similarly light on core fundamentals, especially as prices soar and they become less-tethered to physical-use demand — have also gone parabolic. More prosaically, the relative underperformance of the S & P Small Cap 600 (made up of profitable companies) to the small-cap Russell 2000 (where the majority are unprofitable) offers a nice impression of the race for more marginal names. There’s nothing inherently damning about money chasing hyper-aggressive stocks in a bull market just turning three years old with many core fundamental themes appearing well-exploited. But it creates the conditions for sharper shakeouts and erratic price action. Big bank earnings from Goldman Sachs , JP Morgan , Citigroup and Wells Fargo were impressive, though expectedly so, with mixed stock response. No big credit red flags, though corporate credit spreads are up off their lows in recent weeks and the nagging questions about a couple of private-debt blowups are on repeat. Fed Chair Powell mostly reiterated the case for dropping short-term rates toward neutral while also musing about halting the shrinkage of the Fed balance sheet soon. Not surprising but not unwelcome for the bulls, either. Treasury yields sliding and WTI crude oil sinking under $60 suggest the market is far more focused on subdued growth signals than any further flare-ups in inflation.
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